No Recession In Canada, As Q4 GDP Growth Rose 1%

General Kimberly Coutts 29 Feb

Still No Recession In Canada Thanks to Huge Influx of Immigrants
 

Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose a moderate 1.0% (seasonally adjusted annual rate), a tad better than expected and the Q3 contraction of -1.2% was revised to -0.5%. This leaves growth for 2023 at a moderate 1.1%. Monthly data, also released today by Statistics Canada, showed that December came in flat, well below the robust flash estimate, while the January preliminary estimate was a strong +0.4% (subject, of course, to revision). The January uptick was driven by the return of Quebec public servants and a mild winter.

The fourth quarter growth was fueled by higher oil exports and was moderated by a significant decline in business investment. Housing investment declined again in Q4–a sixth decline in the last seven quarters. Despite increased activity in Q4 new residential construction and renovations, it was more than offset by a large drop in home ownership transfer costs, reflecting the weakening resale market across Canada. Single-family units and apartments led the rise in new construction, as all provinces and territories, except Prince Edward Island, post a rise in housing starts.

Investment in non-residential structures fell sharply, as did spending on machinery and equipment, especially on aircraft and other transportation equipment. Even government spending declined.
 

Bottom Line

This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on March 6. The central bank will hold interest rates steady at next week’s meeting, and while some are suggesting the first rate cut this cycle will be as soon as the April confab, the consensus remains at June. With the uptick in growth in Q4, there is no urgency for the Bank to ease.

Policymakers will wait for their favourite core inflation measures to fall within the 1%-to-3% target band. They know that GDP per capita is falling and that mortgage renewals at higher interest rates will dampen household discretionary income. That’s why a June rate cut is widely expected.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Amortization Options.

General Kimberly Coutts 29 Feb

Amortization Options.
Your mortgage amortization period is the number of years it will take you to pay off your mortgage. Depending on your choice of amortization period, it will affect how quickly you become mortgage-free as well as how much interest you pay over the lifetime of your mortgage (a longer lifetime equals more interest, whereas a shorter lifetime equals less interest but also bigger payments).

Amortization Benchmarks
Let’s start by looking at the mortgage industry benchmark amortization period. This is typically a 25-year period and is the standard that is used by the majority of lenders when it comes to discussing mortgage products. It is also typically the basis for standard mortgage calculators. While this is the standard, it is not the only option when it comes to your mortgage amortization. Mortgage amortizations can be as short as 5 years and as long as 35 years!

Benefits of a Shorter Amortization
Opting for a shorter amortization period will result in paying less interest overall during the life of your mortgage. Choosing this amortization schedule means you will also become mortgage-free faster and have access to your home equity sooner! However, if you choose to pay off your mortgage over a shorter time frame, you will have higher payments per month. If your income is irregular, you are at the maximum end of your monthly budget or this is your first home, you may not benefit from a shorter amortization and having more cash flow tied up in your monthly mortgage payments.

Benefits of a Longer Amortization
When it comes to choosing a longer amortization period, there are still advantages. The first is that you have smaller monthly mortgage payments, which can make home ownership less daunting for first-time buyers as well as free up additional monthly cash flow for other bills or endeavors. A longer amortization also has its advantages when it comes to buying a home as choosing a longer amortization period can often get you into your dream home sooner, due to utilizing standard mortgage payments versus accelerated. In some cases, with your payments happening over a larger period, you may also qualify for a slightly higher value mortgage than a shorter amortization depending on your situation.

Let’s Chat!
I would be happy to help with the decision for the amortization that best suits your unique requirements and ensures you have adequate cash flow. However, it is important to mention that you are not stuck with the amortization schedule you choose at the time you get your mortgage. You can shorten or lengthen your amortization, as well as consider making extra payments on your mortgage (if you set up pre-payment options), at a later date.

Ideally, you are re-evaluating your mortgage at renewal time (every 3, 5, or 10 years depending on your mortgage product). During renewal is a great time to review your amortization and payment schedules or make changes if they are no longer working for you.

If you have any questions or are looking to get started on purchasing a home, don’t hesitate to book a Discovery Call with me today!

Great News On The Inflation Front Cause Big Bond Rally

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Feb

Canadian Inflation Falls to 2.9% in January, Boosting Rate Cut Prospects
 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-over-year in January, down sharply from December’s 3.4% reading. The most significant contributor to the deceleration was a 4% decline in y/y gasoline prices, compared to a 1.4% rise the month before (see chart below). Excluding gasoline, headline CPI slowed to 3.2% y/y, down from 3.5% in December.

Headline inflation of 2.9% marks the first time since June that inflation has moved into the Bank of Canada 1%-to-3% target band and only the second time to breach that band since March 2021.

Grocery price inflation also decelerated broadly in January to 3.4% y/y, down from 4.7% in December. Lower prices for airfares and travel tours also contributed to the headline deceleration. Prices for clothing and footwear were 1.3% lower than levels from a year ago, potentially reflecting the discounting of winter clothing after a milder-than-usual winter in much of the country.

The shelter component of inflation remains by far the largest contributor to annual inflation. The effect of past central bank rate hikes feeds into the CPI with a lag. The y/y growth in mortgage interest costs edged lower in January but still posted a 27.4% rise and accounted for about a quarter of the total annual inflation. Inflation, excluding mortgage costs, is now at 2.0%. Home rent prices continue to rise, but another component under shelter – homeowners’ replacement costs inched lower on slower house price growth.

On a monthly basis, the CPI was unchanged in January, following a 0.3% decline in December. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in January, the first decline since May 2020.
 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim slowed three ticks to 3.4%, and the median declined two ticks to 3.3% from year-ago levels, as shown in the chart below.

Notably, the share of the CPI basket of goods and services growing at more than 5% has declined from the peak of 68% in May 2022 to 28% in January 2024.
 

Bottom Line

The next meeting of the Bank of Canada Governing Council is on March 6. While January’s inflation report was better than expected and shows that the breadth of inflation is narrowing, it is still well above the level consistent with the 2% inflation target.

Shelter inflation will remain sticky as higher mortgage rates over the course of last year filter into the index and the acute housing shortage boosts rents.

The Bank of Canada will remain cautious in the face of still-high wage gains and core inflation measures above 3%. I hold to my view that the Bank will begin cutting rates in June.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Home Sales Continued to Rise in January as Markets Tightened

General Kimberly Coutts 14 Feb

Canadian Home Sales Continued Their Upward Trend in January As Prices Fell Modestly
 

The Canadian Real Estate Association announced today that home sales over the last two months show signs of recovery. National sales were up 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% gain in December. The chart below shows that despite the two-month rise, sales remain 9% below their ten-year average. According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market that is starting to turn a corner but is still working through the weakness of the last two years.”

National gains were once again led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal, Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary, and most markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe and cottage country.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions was 22% above January 2023, the most significant year-over-year gain since May 2021. While that sounds like a resounding rise in activity, January 2023 posted the weakest transaction level in nearly twenty years.

There is pent-up demand for housing, and recent buyers are lured back into the market by the recent price decline and the fear that prices could rise significantly once the Bank of Canada starts cutting interest rates. 
 

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes increased 1.5% month-over-month in January, although it remains close to the lowest level since last June.

“The market has been showing some early signs of life over the last couple of months, probably no surprise given how much pent-up demand is out there,” said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA.

With sales up by more than new listings in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened further to 58.8% compared to under 50% just three months earlier. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

There were 3.7 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2024, down from 3.8 months at the end of December and 4.1 months at the end of November. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.
 

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 1.2% month-over-month in January 2024, adding to the 1.1% price decline in December.

Price descents of late have been predominantly in Ontario markets, particularly the Greater Golden Horseshoe and, to a lesser extent, British Columbia. Elsewhere in Canada, prices are mostly holding firm or, in some cases (Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador), continuing to rise.

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 0.4% year-over-year in January 2024, similar to readings over the past six months.
 

Bottom Line

Sales in December and January generally run at about half the peak spring season pace. That could be especially true this year, with interest rates likely to begin falling by mid-year. A strong housing rebound is coming. Housing markets have bottomed, buyer sentiment is improving and fixed mortgage rates have started declining.

Housing markets in Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are relatively balanced again, and with the spring season, we will see a rise in new listings.

In other news, the inflation data released yesterday in the US were higher than expected, pushing rate-cut forecasts further out. With the strength in the US economy, the 5-year government of Canada bond yield has quietly risen more than 50 basis points this year.

Canada’s Housing Minister, Sean Fraser, said he expects the fall in interest rates this year to encourage builders to ramp up their activity, helping to alleviate some of the country’s crunched housing supply. At a news conference yesterday, the minister said, “My expectation is if we see a dip in interest rates over the course of this year, a lot of the developers that I’ve spoken to will start those projects that are marginal today.”

Sean Fraser, asked whether he’s concerned that Bank of Canada rate cuts will unleash pent-up demand and higher home prices, said lower borrowing costs should also lead to an increase in supply. Fraser said whatever happens with rates, the government’s course of action will remain the same. “We need to do everything we can as quickly as we can to build as many homes as we can. And that’s going to be true today and six months from now, regardless of what may happen in the interest rate environment that we’re dealing with.”

At a news conference last week, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that while he’s heard from developers who’ve indicated higher rates are delaying projects, lowering rates would have a more significant impact on demand.

“It’s very clear in the data that the effects of interest rates on demand are much bigger than those on supply,” he told reporters.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Estate Planning: Are You Covered?

General Kimberly Coutts 12 Feb

Estate Planning: Are You Covered?

“New Year, new you” may be a cliché but it is for a reason! The New Year always has us thinking about where we are now, and where we want to end up. When it comes to your personal goals, a review of your finances and estate should be at the top of your list. Proper estate planning can ensure that you have a stress-free year knowing you are covered!

Is your will up-to-date?

The purpose of a will is to outline your assets and determine how they will be distributed, as well as who will be in charge of managing affairs. Some key components to include in this document are:

  • Up-to-date list of your significant assets; note the location if outside your province or outside Canada.
  • Who will inherit your assets? And which?
  • Outline of where you want assets to pass outside your estate to avoid probate fees (e.g., an insurance policy, an RRSP)? Do this via beneficiary designation.
    • If they are minors, do you have a trust or other provisions in place?
  • Is the list of beneficiaries in your will up to date? Have there been recent births, deaths or marriages in your family?
  • Have you included alternates in case your named beneficiaries predecease you?
  • Do you want to give to charities or other organizations?
  • If you have children, have you indicated a guardian and spoken to them?
    • Did you include an alternate in case the guardian you chose is unable to commit?
    • Have you reviewed your choice of guardian as your child grows older?
  • Your executor who will carry out your wishes after you die. You can name one executor or two or more co-executors. Be sure to name one or more alternates as well.

Have you assigned a power of attorney?

Another important (and often overlooked!) aspect of estate planning involves naming a power of attorney. This individual is someone you trust to make decisions for you should you become unable to do so due to injury or illness, whether temporary or otherwise.  Power of attorney documents are created for you by a wills and estates lawyer (or notary in Quebec) as part of your estate plan.

Do you have mortgage protection insurance?

Through Manulife Mortgage Protection Plan (MPP), you have the opportunity to add a portable insurance policy to your mortgage that helps protect your loved ones and your home should something unexpected happen to you.  Unlike bank insurance, MPP is a portable life and disability product that you can take with you, from lender to lender and property to property.  This gives you the utmost future flexibility and is unlike bank insurance products which tie you down exclusively to them.  To ensure you get the best rate at renewal, you must have invested in an insurance product like MPP that will give you the freedom to move!

Mortgage life insurance will protect your family’s future by paying out your mortgage should the mortgage holder pass away. Manulife will also make your mortgage payments while your claim is being adjudicated, so there is no added stress for a loved one at an already difficult time.  Mortgage disability insurance will take care of your mortgage payments plus property taxes if you become disabled.  Disabilities from sickness and accidents are relatively common and will affect 1 in 3 borrowers throughout their mortgage amortization.  Manulife provides budget-friendly payment options, the ability to top-up your coverage and so much more.

These are all important aspects to consider to ensure your estate and family will be provided for should something happen. While never a fun topic, it is an important one and the better prepared you are, the better off your loved ones will be.

Canadian January Jobs Report Suggests No Recession In Sight

General Kimberly Coutts 12 Feb

January Jobs Report Dispells Recession Fears
 

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for January was a mixed bag and shows the dramatic effect of surging immigration. Canadian employment rose by a stronger-than-expected 37,300, but part-time jobs rose by 48,900, and in the public sector, the gain was huge. The employment rate fell a tick because population growth outpaced employment growth. The working-age population surged by 125,500 in a single month and is up by a remarkable 1 million adults year-over-year.

This ballooning of the working-age population is without precedent. In the past, it has never grown more than 500,000 in any year. Holy Cow, what are we doing?  Where will all of the people live, where will their kids go to school, where will the new hospitals be built, not to mention the transportation infrastructure on already crowded subways and roadways?
 

The unemployment rate fell a tick to 5.7%, the first such drop since December 2022. This reflected the 0.2 percentage point decline in the labour force participation love to 65.3%, as the number of people in the labour force held steady and the population rose.

Most of the new jobs were in the service sector, led by wholesale and retail trade, and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing. There were declines in other sectors, especially in accommodation and food services.
 

In  January, average hourly wages were up 5.3% year-over-year, still way too high for the Bank of Canada. According to Statistics Canada, average hourly wages rose 5.9% to an average of $60.58 for employees with hourly wages in the top 25% of the wage distribution in January 2024, compared with an increase of 4.6% (to $17.64 per hour) for those with hourly wages in the bottom 25% of the wage distribution (not seasonally adjusted). Of course, the highest-paid workers earn a salary and are not paid by the hour.
Bottom Line

The next Bank of Canada announcement date is on March 6th. There is plenty of data yet to come out before then. But judging from what we already know, the economy is not in recession, and wages are still rising too rapidly. Housing markets are already beginning to heat up, and the US economy is running red hot. The strong US inevitably spills into Canada. This gives the BoC more time to ponder inflation. So far, there is no hurry for them to cut rates.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year

General Kimberly Coutts 24 Jan

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady And Expects Rate Cuts Later This Year

Today, The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting but provided an outlook suggesting that monetary easing will begin by mid-year. The Bank forecasts a soft landing for the Canadian economy, with inflation falling to 2.5% by the end of this year. While some economists predict a recession, the Bank suggests that “growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024” and “strengthen gradually around the middle of 2024.” This would be a soft landing.

While inflation ended 2023 at 3.4%, owing mainly to high and sticky shelter costs, “the Bank expects inflation to remain close to 3% during the first half of this year before gradually easing, returning to the 2% target in 2025. While the slowdown in demand is reducing price pressures in a broader number of CPI components and corporate pricing behaviour continues to normalize, core measures of inflation are not showing sustained declines.”

The press release says that the “Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.”  The Bank now believes the economy is in excess supply, inflation expectations and corporate pricing behaviour are moving in the right direction, and wage demands, at 5.4% year-over-year in the last reading–are still too high. Wages are a lagging indicator and with job vacancies returning to pre-pandemic levels, wage pressures are likely to dissipate as the year progresses.
 

Today, the tone was much more optimistic, suggesting that policymakers are increasingly confident interest rates are restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Still, Bank officials want to see more progress on core inflation before it begins to ease. It said, “The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.”

The central bank focuses on “the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour” and remains resolute in restoring price stability.

Bottom Line

This was a more upbeat Bank of Canada statement. There is a good chance that monetary tightening has done its job, and inflation will trend downward in the coming months. As we have seen, the road to 2% inflation is bumpy, but we are heading there probably sooner than the Bank expects. As predicted, they are staying the course for now, but multiple rate cuts are likely this year. The scheduled dates for announcing the policy rate are March 6, April 10, June 5 and July 24. The Bank of Canada will begin cutting the overnight rate somewhere in there.

For now, my bet is on the June meeting, but if I’m wrong, it will likely be sooner rather than later. Once they begin to take rates down, they will do so gradually, 25 basis points at a time, and over a series of meetings. We could well see rates fall by 100-to-150 bps this year. Risks to the outlook remain, as always.

I do not expect the overnight policy rate to fall as low as the pre-Covid level of 1.75% this cycle. Inflation averaged less than 2% in the five years before COVID-19, depressed by increasing globalization and technological advances. Those forces are now reversed.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Inflation Rises to 3.4% Y/Y In December

General Kimberly Coutts 16 Jan

A Bumpy Road To The Inflation Target

Canada’s headline inflation number for December ’23 moved up three bps to 3.4%, as expected, as gasoline prices didn’t fall as fast as a year ago. These so-called base effects were also evident in the earlier US inflation data for the same month.

Additional acceleration came from airfares, fuel oil, passenger vehicles and rent. Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.7% yearly in December, matching the increase in November (+4.7%). Moderating the acceleration in the all-items CPI were lower prices for travel tours.

On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.3% in December after a 0.1% gain in November. Lower month-over-month price movements for travel tours (-18.2%) and gasoline (-4.4%) contributed to the monthly decline. The CPI rose 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.
 

Two key yearly inflation measures that are tracked closely by the Bank of Canada and filter out components with more volatile price fluctuations — the so-called trim and median core rates — increased, averaging 3.65%, from an upwardly revised 3.55% a month earlier. That’s faster than the 3.35% pace expected by economists. The trim rate rose due to the movements of rent and passenger vehicle prices.

Another important indicator, a three-month moving average of underlying price pressures, rose to an annualized pace of 3.63% in December from 2.94% in November, according to Bloomberg calculations. The Bank of Canada follows this metric closely because it reveals shorter-term inflation trends.

According to Bloomberg News, following the release of today’s CPI data, “the yield on two-year Canadian government bonds rose about four basis points to 3.857%…Traders in overnight swaps pushed back bets on when the Bank of Canada will start cutting rates to July, from as early as April before the release.”
 

Bottom Line

This is the last major data release before the Bank of Canada meets again on January 24th. I concur with the widely held view that the rate pause will continue at the next meeting despite evidence that the economy is slowing. Governor Tiff Macklem will err on the side of caution before beginning to cut overnight rates. The last reading on wages showed a 5.4% y/y rise, and yesterday’s housing release showed a bump in sales. Macklem and Co. will keep their powder dry until they see an all-clear signal that core inflation is sustainably below 3%.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

A look back at 2023 and what’s ahead for 2024!

General Kimberly Coutts 10 Jan

As 2023 draws to an end and a new year begins, let’s look back on Canada’s economic landscape and ahead to what the economists foresee in 2024.

The past year demonstrated Canada’s economic resilience through robust job growth and increased investments at the beginning of the year. However, by year’s end, the current high-interest rates had contributed to a slowdown in business and consumer activities, leading to forecasts of weaker growth in the first half of 2024. Despite this, economists anticipate the economy to begin to rebound in the latter part of 2024.

In 2023, the inflation rate began at 5.9% and gradually decreased to 3.1% by November (pending December’s data). While the Bank of Canada doesn’t anticipate inflation reaching its 2% target until late 2025, it aims for comfort within the 3% – 2.5% range. The evident impact of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes has resulted in prospective buyers feeling priced out of the market, impacting consumer confidence and leading to a ‘wait-and-see’ approach throughout 2023. Concurrently, the Bank of Canada’s strategic rate adjustments have effectively moderated the housing market’s pace, contributing to a gradual slowdown without significantly affecting property values in most parts of the country.

In 2023, Canadians also came to terms with the reality that rock-bottom interest rates are a thing of the past, and these new normal rates are now a permanent fixture. While we will see some modest decreases in rates in the coming year, many Canadians will no longer be able to delay their entry into the housing market in hopes of further rate drops.

Now, let’s focus on what lies ahead in 2024:

There are emerging signs indicating the tangible effects of the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) rate hikes are beginning to take root. Coupled with the anticipation of inflation dropping below 3%, we are finally witnessing movement in rates. Anticipated rate cuts from both the Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve have triggered a positive response in bond markets. This has resulted in lowered fixed rates, especially the 5-year rates, with some Insured rates dropping as much as 1%, fostering competition among lenders. As they gear up for the spring market, this competition benefits borrowers, especially first-time home buyers who have less than a 20% down payment.

There’s a glimmer of hope on the horizon for Floating Rate holders (Variable or Adjustable). Most economists and markets are predicting a potential 100 – 150 bps rate cut to the current policy rate in 2024. However, the transition won’t happen abruptly; the Bank of Canada (BoC) is likely to proceed cautiously, implementing gradual decreases while monitoring inflation and the economy. This will benefit Adjustable Rate holders with reduced mortgage payments and Variable Rate holders seeing a shift towards principal repayment.

With housing affordability and supply shortages pressing all levels of government, there will be a continued push for new construction developments aimed at bolstering the housing supply. Though this issue isn’t something that will be swiftly resolved within a year or even a few, it remains at the forefront of all levels of government, underscoring the ongoing necessity of addressing the housing shortage.

What this all means for you, the consumer:

It’s estimated that about $251 billion in mortgages will come up for renewal in 2024, with another $352 billion worth in 2025. As a result, many Canadians will soon face a significant increase in their monthly mortgage payment—a major expense—and will have to adjust their spending. With that said, many lenders are going to be competing for your business. Working with professionals like myself, with access to multiple lenders, is essential, allowing for better rates and products. It will also be important to get ahead of your renewal so you can adjust the family budget for a certain increase in your monthly mortgage payment.

For those dealing with high-interest debt, now is an opportune time to consider refinancing for debt consolidation, especially with declining rates, providing a chance to manage debt effectively. Consider this the “reset button” that can get you back on track and increase your monthly cash flow.

Finally, as there’s a growing anticipation that the period of interest rate hikes might be coming to an end, this prospect will rekindle buyer interest in the market. With the expected decrease in fixed and variable rates, increased purchasing power could spur more demand in the housing market, causing an uptick in values. Choosing a variable rate or a short-term fixed rate now enables you to buy before the surge in demand while also positioning yourself to secure a potentially lower rate in the near future rather than waiting for rates to drop significantly.

While uncertainties remain, it’s crucial for those planning mortgage transactions in 2024 to review their needs sooner rather than later. Together, we can determine the best course of action that suits your family’s budget and needs.

I’m here to assist whenever you’re ready.
Questions on your mortgage, or want to compare your mortgage to what is currently available? Please email me.

Inflation Held Steady In November

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Dec

 

Today’s inflation report was stronger than expected, unchanged from October’s 3.1% pace. While some had forecast a sub-3% reading, the November CPI data posted a welcome slowdown in food and shelter prices. Increases in recreation and clothing offset this–both are discretionary purchases. Cellular services and fuel oil prices declined on a year-over-year basis.

The CPI rose 0.1% from October to November, the same growth rate as in October. The steady pace of annual inflation resulted from the base effects in the energy sector. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent month over month in November (-3.5%) than in October (-6.4%). Base effects will also inflate next month’s year-over-year data as well.
 

Core prices aligned with the headline figures, as the Bank of Canada’s favourite core measures came in at roughly 3.5%. Even excluding food and energy, the core rose 3.5% y/y. The core data were more favourable at three-month trends, posting at about 2.5%.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s CPI data show why Governor Tiff Macklem is cautious about rate cuts, but judging from the past three months, core inflation is on a downward trend.

In a speech on Friday, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said inflation could get “close” to the bank’s 2% target by late next year, though he also said it was “still too early to consider cutting our policy rate.”

The economy is slowing, labour markets have eased, and price pressures are slowing. The road to 2% inflation will be bumpy, but it remains likely that monetary tightening has peaked, and rate cuts will begin by the middle of next year.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
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