Will the May Inflation Decline Thwart Another Rate Hike in July?

General Kimberly Coutts 28 Jun

Will the May Inflation Decline Thwart Another Rate Hike in July?

The May inflation data, released this morning by Statistics Canada, bore no surprises. The year-over-year (y/y) inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3.4% was just as expected–down a full percentage point from the April reading. This is the smallest increase since June 2021. Economists hit this one on the head because we knew dropping the April 2022 figure from the y/y calculation would considerably lower May inflation.

By May of last year, y/y  inflation had already risen sharply to 7.7%, mainly due to dramatic energy price increases reflecting the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Inflation peaked at 8.1% in June ’22, suggesting low inflation next month as well. This is why the Bank of Canada predicted that inflation would fall to 3% by this summer.

Taking inflation down to 3% will likely be easier than the drop from 3% to 2% because the low-hanging fruit has already been harvested. Many service prices are a lot stickier than the price of commodities and durable goods.

The May inflation slowdown was primarily driven by the 18.3% y/y plunge in gasoline prices resulting from the base-year effect. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.4% in May, following a 4.9% increase in April. A drop in natural gas prices (-3.5%) also contributed to the energy price deceleration.

Prices for durable goods grew at a slower pace year over year in May, rising 1.0% after increasing 2.2% in April. The increase in May is the smallest since May 2020 and coincided with easing supply chain pressures compared with a year ago. This was reflected in furniture prices (-2.9%), which fell by the largest amount since June 2020, and passenger vehicle prices (+3.2%), which showed the smallest increase since February 2021.

Grocery prices remain elevated–up 9.0% y/y–down only one tick from April. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose slightly faster year-over-year in May (+6.8%) than in April (+6.4%), amid ongoing elevated labour shortages, input costs and expenses, which Stats Can data show job vacancies can disproportionately affect these businesses.

Rising interest rates also boost inflation. This is because mortgage costs are just over 3% of the CPI. They are a part of the most significant component of the index–shelter–which represents almost 30% of the index. The mortgage interest cost index rose by a whopping 29.9% in May, following a 28.5% increase in April. This was the largest increase on record for the third consecutive month, as Canadians continued to renew and initiate mortgages at higher interest rates. And, of course, this does not include the effects of the policy rate hike in June.

It takes time for the full effect of interest rate hikes entirely feed into the CPI. Mortgage interest costs will continue to rise as higher interest rates flow gradually through to household mortgage payments with a lag as contracts are renewed. And home-buying related expenses ticked higher in May, with higher home resale prices increasing realtor and broker commissions.

Bottom Line

Achieving the 2% inflation target will take some effort. The Bank of Canada continues to be concerned that the Canadian economy remains too hot. Although unemployment relative to job vacancies has recently started to rise, the Bank remains troubled that excess demand will continue to push some prices upward. This is the cyclical component of inflation–inversely correlated with the unemployment rate–a version the Fed calls ‘supercore’ inflation. Supercore includes household services such as haircuts, personal care, babysitting, restaurant meals, travel, accommodation, recreation and entertainment.

It is roughly the CPI-trim (which filters out extreme price movements that might be caused by severe weather and other temporary factors) minus the price of food, shelter and energy. This measure has fallen less than the other core measures. Supercore inflation is about 5.5% y/y, compared to CPI-trim at 3.8%,CPI- median at 3.9% (see the chart below).

Looking at the recent monthly trends on a three-month annualized basis, CPI-trim was at 3.8% in May, down from 3.9%, and CPI-median was at 3.6%, down from 3.8% in April.

This is why the Bank of Canada emphasizes labour market data and overall spending measures. We will get two more important Statistics Canada releases before the July 12th BoC decision: the June 30th  monthly GDP number for April and the all-important Labour Force Survey on July 7th. Unless these data show a meaningful economic slowdown or a rise in unemployment, the odds of another BoC rate hike are about 60%.

Please Note: The source of this article is from SherryCooper.com/category/articles/

How Job Loss Affects Your Mortgage Application.

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Jun

How Job Loss Affects Your Mortgage Application.

Whether you’ve made an offer on a home already or are still in the process of looking, you already understand that buying a home is likely the largest investment you’ll ever make.

When it comes to your mortgage application, there are a few things that you should avoid doing while you’re waiting for approval – such as making large purchases (i.e. a new car), applying for new credit, pulling additional credit reports, etc. Another issue that can come up is the loss of your job.

What you can afford to qualify for in relation to your mortgage depends on your income. As a result, the sudden loss of employment can be quite detrimental to your efforts. So, what do you do?

Should You Continue With Your Mortgage Application?

If you’ve already qualified for a mortgage, but your employment circumstances have changed, your first step is to disclose this to your lender. They will move to verify your income prior to closing and, if they have not been told in advance, it may be considered fraud as your application income and closing income would not match.

In some cases, the loss of your job may not affect your mortgage. Some examples include:

  • You secure a new job right away in the same field as previously. Keep in mind, you will still need to requalify. However, if your new job requires a 3-month probationary period then you may not be approved.
  • If you have a co-signer on the mortgage who earns enough income to qualify for the value on their own. However, be sure your co-signer is aware of your employment situation.
  • If you have additional sources of income such as income from retirement, investments, rentals or even child support they may be considered, depending on the lender.

Can You Use Unemployment Income to Apply for a Mortgage?

Typically this is not a suitable source of income to qualify for a mortgage. In rare cases, individuals with seasonal or cyclical jobs who rely on unemployment income for a portion of the year may be considered. However, you would be asked to provide a two-year cycle of employment followed by Employment Insurance benefits.

What Happens During Furlough?

If you did not lose your job entirely but have instead been furloughed or temporarily laid off, your lender may take a wait-and-see approach to your mortgage application. You would be required to provide a letter from your employer with a return-to-work date on it in this situation. However, if you don’t return to work before the closing date, your lender may be required to cancel the application for now with resubmitting as an option in the future.

Have You Talked to Your Mortgage Professional?

Regardless of the reason for the change in your employment situation, one of the most important things you can do is book a strategy call with me directly to discuss your situation. They can look at all the options for you and help with finding a solution that best suits you.

Second Mortgages: What You Need to Know.

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Jun

Second Mortgages: What You Need to Know.

One of the biggest benefits to purchasing your own home is the ability to build equity in your property. This equity can come in handy down the line for refinancing, renovations, or taking out additional loans – such as a second mortgage.

What is a second mortgage?

First things first, a second mortgage refers to an additional or secondary loan taken out on a property for which you already have a mortgage. This is not the same as purchasing a second home or property and taking out a separate mortgage for that. A second mortgage is a very different product from a traditional mortgage as you are using your existing home equity to qualify for the loan and put up in case of default. Similar to a traditional mortgage, a second mortgage will also come with its own interest rate, monthly payments, set terms, closing costs and more.

Second mortgages versus refinancing

As both refinancing your existing mortgage and taking out a second mortgage can take advantage of existing home equity, it is a good idea to look at the differences between them. Firstly, a refinance is typically only done when you’re at the end of your current mortgage term so as to avoid any penalties with refinancing the mortgage.

The purpose of refinancing is often to take advantage of a lower interest rate, change your mortgage terms or, in some cases, borrow against your home equity.

When you get a second mortgage, you are able to borrow a lump sum against the equity in your current home and can use that money for whatever purpose you see fit. You can even choose to borrow in installments through a credit line and refinance your second mortgage in the future.

What are the advantages of a second mortgage?

There are several advantages when it comes to taking out a second mortgage, including:

  • The ability to access a large loan sum (in some cases, up to 90% of your home equity) which is more than you can typically borrow on other traditional loans.
  • Better interest rate than a credit card as they are a ‘secured’ form of debt.
  • You can use the money however you see fit without any caveats.

What are the disadvantages of a second mortgage?

As always, when it comes to taking out an additional loan, there are a few things to consider:

  • Interest rates tend to be higher on a second mortgage than refinancing your mortgage.
  • Additional financial pressure from carrying a second loan and another set of monthly bills.

Before looking into any additional loans, such as a secondary mortgage (or even refinancing), be sure to book a strategy call with me! Regardless of why you are considering a second mortgage, it is a good idea to get a review of your current financial situation and determine if this is the best solution before proceeding.