The Surge In Canadian Unemployment Keeps Another Jumbo Rate Cut In Play In December   Before the release of today’s Canadian Labour Force Data, the odds favoured a 25 basis point drop in the overnight policy rate when the Bank of Canada meets again on December 11th. The data showed more substantial than expected job […]

October Inflation Rose to 2.0% As Gasoline Price Declines Were More Muted   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year-over-year in October, up from a 1.6% increase in September. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent in October (-4.0%) compared with September (-10.7%). The all-items CPI, excluding gasoline, rose 2.2% in October, the same […]

The Canadian Housing Market Shows Signs of Life   Canadian home sales surged to their highest level in more than two years as the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, bringing buyers back into the market. Home sales rose 7.7% month-over-month (m/m) in October, reaching their highest level since April 2022. Rising home sales were […]

Weaker-Than-Expected October Jobs Report Keeps Jumbo Rate Cut In-Play in December   Statistics Canada released October employment data today. The data showed a marked slowdown in job growth, underscoring ongoing labour-market softness that triggered a jumbo rate cut last month. Statistics Canada said the country added 14,500 positions in October, which missed the median expectation of a 27,200 […]

Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 50 BPs   After three consecutive 25 bp rate cuts, the BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. The market had priced in 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and back-to-back weak […]

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   Following the Bank of Canada’s third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems […]

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% year over year in September, the slowest pace since February 2021 and down from a 2.0% gain in August 2024. The main contributor to headline deceleration was lower year-over-year gasoline prices in September (-10.7%) compared with August (-5.1%). The all-items CPI, […]

Stronger-Than-Expected September Jobs Report Reduces Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts   Statistics Canada released September employment data today, showing a marked uptick in job growth and the first decline in the unemployment rate this year. Employment rose by 46,700 in September, following four months of little change. Despite the employment gain, the employment rate—the proportion of […]

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, and down from a 2.5% gain in July 2024. Core inflation measures averaged 2.35% y/y and excluding mortgage interest, headline inflation was a mere 1.2%–well below the Bank’s target inflation level of […]

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another slight gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July. Still, the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly […]