Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut

General Kimberly Coutts 16 Jul

Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut
 

Inflation unexpectedly slipped 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. This was the first decline in six months. The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in June, down from a 2.9% gain in May. The deceleration was mainly due to slower year-over-year growth in gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in June following a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% in June.

Lower prices for durable goods (-1.8%) y/y also contributed to the slowdown in the all-items CPI in June, following a 0.8% decline in May. An increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+2.1%) moderated the deceleration, as well as a smaller decline for cellular services in June (-12.8%) compared with May (-19.4%).
 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim was unchanged in June at 2.9%, above the market’s expectation of 2.8%. The CPI median fell two ticks to 2.6%.

The third chart below shows the 3- and 6-month moving averages for the average of median and trim CPI measured as an annualized percentage change. While the 3-month moving average has accelerated to about 3%, the 6–month measure has fallen to just over 2%.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading is good news for the Bank of Canada, giving them leeway to cut interest rates next week. June marks the sixth consecutive month that the headline yearly inflation rate has been within the BoC’s target range, bringing the annual pace of price pressures back to its weakest levels since 2021.

Today’s inflation data will give the central bank confidence that the May rise in inflation was temporary. Annual inflation will reach the Bank’s 2% target by some time next year. This opens the way for the Bank to cut the overnight rate on July 24 by 25 bps to 4.5%.

According to Bloomberg News, traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada would cut rates next Wednesday, putting the odds at about 90% compared with 80% before the release.

Yesterday’s business and consumer outlook surveys point towards slowing growth in firms’ input and selling prices amid a weaker economic backdrop. Inflation expectations fell in June and are now in the BoC’s target range. Businesses are expecting weaker soft demand. The unemployment rate is trending higher, and the share of firms reporting labour shortages is near a record low. Companies’ expectations for wage increases over the next year have slowed. Overall, capacity constraints “have returned close to their historical average.”

The central bank flagged that consumer survey respondents still think domestic factors, including fiscal policy and elevated housing costs, are “contributing to high inflation.” Home-buying intentions are near historical averages, the bank said, and are supported by “strong plans” among newcomers to buy homes.

Another rate cut is coming next week, which will help to spur housing activity
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Weaker-than-expected Jobs Report Keeps Further BoC Rate Cuts In Play

General Kimberly Coutts 5 Jul

Weaker-Than-Expected June Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In Play
 

Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a marked slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates by at least 175 basis points through next year. Whether they do so at their next meeting on July 24 will depend on the June inflation data released on July 16.

Canada shed 1,400 jobs last month, following a 26,700 increase in May. Economists had been expecting a stronger showing. Monthly job gains have averaged around 30,000 in the past year, while labour force growth has been more than 50,000, causing the jobless rate to rise. Full-time jobs declined marginally while part-time work edged upward. Job losses in June were led by decreases in transportation and warehousing, information and recreation, and wholesale and retail trade.

Regionally, jobs decreased in Quebec but rose in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.
 

Population growth isn’t likely to slow shortly, meaning that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will increase the jobless rate. The jobless rate rose to 6.4%, up two ticks from a month earlier and 1.6 percentage points above the July 2022 cycle low. It is also the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic). The rising unemployment rate aligned with the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric that higher interest rates damaged the labour market and strengthened the case for further rate cuts to support the economy.
 

Total hours worked were down 0.4% in June. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 1.1%.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.4% in June on a year-over-year basis, following growth of 5.1% in May (not seasonally adjusted). This won’t sit well with the central bank’s Governing Council, but they realize that wage inflation is a lagging economic indicator, and rapidly rising unemployment will ultimately dampen wage inflation.

The data were released at the same time as US payrolls, which showed hiring moderated in June and prior months were revised lower. This boosts the odds that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in the coming months. Fluctuations in the loonie are often driven by the difference between US and Canadian interest rates, owing to the two countries’ tight economic links.
 

Bottom Line

Traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada will cut borrowing costs again in July, putting the odds at around two-thirds, up from around 55% before the release.

In a speech last week, Macklem said it’s “not surprising” that wages are moderating more slowly than inflation because wages tend to lag the trend in job growth. He also said the unemployment rate could rise further, but a significant increase isn’t needed to get inflation back to the 2% target.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

General Kimberly Coutts 2 Jul

The Bank of Canada finally began an easing cycle on June 5, taking their overnight policy rate down 25 bps to 4.75%–the first major central bank to do so. The housing market has languished over the past year with extremely weak affordability.

The Multiple-Listing Service Home Price Index fell again in May and is now down 2.4% year-over-year and is off 14.4% from the early 2022 peak when the overnight rate was a mere 25 basis points. Average transaction prices are down 4% y/y and off nearly 15% from the high.

Except for Calgary, housing markets across the country are in a buyers’ market as inventories of active listings have risen and sales have slowed. Calgary prices were up just under 10% y/y in May, pushing new record highs by the month. In the meantime, Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal prices are all flat or down from a year ago, and they are still tucked below the levels seen at the early 2022 high.

The significant drivers in Calgary’s outperformance have been more substantial population growth (juiced by interprovincial inflows), better affordability, and valuations that might make some sense for investors.

Even with their lackluster performance since the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates in March 2022, home prices are still high, having tripled in the past two decades, posting an average 5.7% annual rise, while inflation averaged only 2.2% per year over the same period.

Moreover, the total return on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the same period has been much higher still, averaging 7.9% annually over the past two decades. Despite the recent mini selloff in stocks, the TSX has boasted a more robust return than housing over time. And the US stock market has significantly outperformed the TSX.

Of course, there are significant differences between these two asset classes. Stocks are passive investments that do not provide a place to live or require repairs and maintenance. Housing is more than just a financial investment; it is a lifestyle choice that provides the necessary shelter.

The Bank of Canada will continue to lower interest rates as inflation reaches its 2% target. We expect the overnight rate to fall to about 3% by the end of the easing cycle. But even with only one quarter-point rate cut, bond yields have already fallen significantly in anticipation.

Many mortgage lenders, including three of Canada’s Big Six banks, are slashing fixed mortgage rates, a welcome development for those facing renewal in the coming months. Lenders have already started trimming rates in the wake of a nearly 40-basis-point drop in bond yields, which typically leads fixed mortgage rate pricing.

Over 70% of outstanding mortgages will be renewed within two years. Falling mortgage rates could help soften the payment shock expected for the estimated 2.2 million mortgages that will be renewing at higher rates in the next two years.

But just because rates are falling doesn’t mean all lenders will offer equally low rates in their renewal letters. Typically, they don’t just hand out their especially low rates. That’s where a mortgage broker provides real value, educating borrowers about alternative options, which can be used to haggle a better rate even if they decide not to switch lenders.

For insurable mortgages, the borrower does not need to re-qualify when switching lenders. However, for uninsured mortgage switches, OSFI head Peter Routledge recently rejected renewed calls to remove the mortgage stress test for federally regulated lenders. Knowing your options to improve your bargaining power with your existing lender still pays.

There is a record number of resale condos on the market, and new construction is at a record high. While there remains a longer-term shortage of affordable housing for rent and purchase, it will probably be another year before markets equilibrate and sellers have the advantage.

Housing activity has likely bottomed and will increase as interest rates fall.

Entering the Housing Market

General Kimberly Coutts 2 Jul

 

With the first Bank of Canada rate drop having occurred in June, many individuals are looking at the housing market with renewed vigor and an expectation that rates will continue to come down to a more sustainable level.

If you are someone who is considering entering the housing market this summer, there are a few things you should keep in mind:

With the first Bank of Canada rate drop having occurred in June, many individuals are looking at the housing market with renewed vigor and an expectation that rates will continue to come down to a more sustainable level.

If you are someone who is considering entering the housing market this summer, there are a few things you should keep in mind:

Determine Your Budget: Download my app from Google Play or the Apple iStore to help you calculate mortgage payments, affordability, the income required to qualify, and even estimate your closing costs! It also allows you to connect directly with me through the app so that I can answer any questions you have right in the palm of your hand.

Save For a Down Payment: Your typical down payment should be at least 5% of the purchase price, though 20% down is preferable as anything below that requires default insurance. Your down payment can be done through your own savings account or RRSP’s.

  • Thanks to the Federal Government’s Home Buyer’s Plan, first-time homebuyers can leverage up to $60,000 from their RRSPs (maximum of $120,000 for a couple).
  • PRO TIP: The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is specifically designed to help first-time homebuyers save for their down payment without having to pay taxes on the interest earned on their savings.

Take Advantage of First-Time Buyer Programs: Did you know? First-time home buyers are eligible for an exemption, reducing the amount of property transfer tax paid, depending on the property’s value.

  • PRO TIP: In addition, Ontario, British Columbia, Prince Edward Island, and the City of Toronto offer land transfer tax rebates for first-time homebuyers.

Get Pre-Approved: This means that a lender has stated (in writing) that you qualify for a mortgage and what amount, based on submitted documentation of your current income and credit history. A pre-approval usually specifies a term, interest rate, and mortgage amount and is typically valid for a brief period, assuming various conditions are met.

There are a few benefits to pre-approval such as:

  • It confirms the maximum amount you can afford to spend.
  • It can secure you an interest rate for 90-120 while you shop for your new home
  • It lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue. This is extremely important for competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in.

Understand the Closing Costs: Closing costs are a one-time fee associated with the sale of a home and are separate from the mortgage insurance and down payment. Typically, these costs range from 1.5-4% of the purchase price, depending on your location. Factoring these costs into your maximum budget can help you narrow down an entirely affordable home and ensure future financial stability and security.

Here are a few closing costs to keep an eye out for:

  • Land Transfer Tax: This is calculated as a percentage of the purchase price of your home, with the amount varying in each province. Some cities, such as Toronto, also have a municipal LTT.
  • Legal Fees and Disbursements: You can expect to incur a minimum of $500 (plus GST/HST) on legal fees for the preparation and recording of official documents.
  • Title Insurance: Most lenders require title insurance to protect against losses in the event of a property ownership dispute. This is purchased through your lawyer/notary and is typically $300 or more.
  • PST on CMHC Insurance: Though CMHC insurance itself is financed through the mortgage, PST on the insurance is typically paid at the lawyers and sometimes deducted from your advance.
  • Home Inspection Fee: A home inspection is highly recommended as a condition of your Offer to Purchase to prevent any future surprises. This can cost around $500.
  • Appraisal Fee: An appraisal is performed to certify the lender of the resale value of the home in the case you default on the mortgage. The cost is usually $400 – $600 but is typically covered by the lender.
  • Property Insurance: Property insurance covers the cost of replacing your home and its contents, and must be in place on closing day. This is paid in monthly or annual premiums.
  • Prepaid Utility Bills: You may need to reimburse the previous owner of your property for prepaid costs such as property taxes, utilities, and so forth.
  • Property Taxes: Property taxes are due on an annual basis and are calculated as a percentage of the home value and vary by municipality. You also may need to reimburse the previous property owner if he/she has already paid property taxes for the full year.

Getting Proper Coverage: Purchasing a home is likely the largest investment you will make, and you want to ensure it is protected.

Various insurance items can be obtained for your home, including:

  • Title Insurance: Required by most lenders to protect against losses should a property ownership dispute arise. This insurance is done through your lawyer/notary and typically runs $100-$300.
  • Mortgage Protection Insurance: An optional debt replacement that protects your family should anything happen in the future. Many homeowners believe they are covered through their life insurance policy, but the Manulife Mortgage Protection Plan is different. Before closing, it’s important to look at the costs and coverage for you!
  • Property & Fire Insurance: Mandatory and needs to be arranged before your closing appointment. Not sure how much to budget for? Get quotes from various insurance companies! Your lawyer/notary or myself can provide recommendations
  • Default Insurance: Only required if you purchase a house with less than a 20% down payment.

Whether you’re looking at a condo, townhouse, rancher, or a two-story property, there is nothing quite like your first home! However, the mortgage process can be intimidating – and that’s where I come in! If you’re looking to get started on your home-buying journey, don’t hesitate to reach out to me today.

9 Reasons People Break Their Mortgage.

General Kimberly Coutts 26 Jun

Did you know, approximately 60 percent of people break their mortgage before their mortgage term matures? While this is not necessarily avoidable, most homeowners are blissfully unaware of the penalties that can be incurred when you break your mortgage contract – and sometimes, these penalties can be painfully expensive.

Below are some of the most common reasons that individuals break their mortgage. Being aware of these might help you avoid them (and those troublesome penalties), or at least help you plan ahead!

sale and purchase of a new home

If you already know that you will be looking at moving within the next 5 years, it is important to consider a portable mortgage. Not all mortgages are portable, so if this is a possibility in your near future, it is best to seek out a mortgage product that allows this. However, be aware that some lenders may purposefully provide lower interest rates on non-portable mortgages but don’t be fooled. Knowing your future plans will help you avoid expensive penalties from having to move your mortgage.

Important Note: Whenever a mortgage is ported, the borrower will need to re-qualify under current rules to ensure you can afford the “ported” mortgage based on your income and the necessary qualifications.

to utilize equity

Another reason to break your mortgage is to obtain the valuable equity you have built up over the years. In some areas, such as Toronto and Vancouver, homeowners have seen a huge increase in their home values. Taking out equity can help individuals with paying off debt, expand their investment portfolio, buy a second home, help out elderly parents or send their kids to college.

This is best done when your mortgage is at the end of its term, but if you cannot wait, be sure you are aware of the penalties associated with your mortgage contract.

to pay off debt

Life happens and so can debt. If you have accumulated multiple credit cards and other debt (car loan, personal loan, etc.), rolling these into your mortgage can help you pay them off over a longer period of time at a much lower interest rate than credit cards. In addition, it is much easier to manage a single monthly payment than half a dozen! When you are no longer paying the high interest rates on credit cards, it can provide the opportunity to get your finances in order.

Again, be aware that if you do this during your mortgage term, the penalties could be steep and you won’t end up further ahead. It is best to plan to consolidate debt and organize your finances when your mortgage term is up and you are able to renew and renegotiate.

cohabitation, marriage and/or children

As we grow up, our life changes. Perhaps you have a partner you have been with a long time, and now you’ve decided to move in together. If you both own a home and cannot afford to keep two, or if neither has a rental clause, then you will need to sell one of the homes which could break the mortgage.

divorce or separation

A large number of Canadian marriages are expected to end in divorce. Unfortunately, when couples separate it can mean breaking the mortgage to divide the equity in the home. In cases where one partner wants to buy the other out, they will need to refinance the home. Both of these break the mortgage, so be aware of the penalties which should be paid out of any sale profit before the funds are split.

major life events

There are some cases where things happen unexpectedly and out of our control, including: illness, unemployment, death of a partner or someone on the title. These circumstances may result in the home having to be refinanced, or even sold, which could come with penalties for breaking the mortgage.

removing someone from title

Did you know that roughly 20% of parents help their children purchase a home? Often in these situations, the parents remain on the title. Once their son or daughter is financially stable, secure and can qualify on their own, then it is time to remove the parents from the title.

Some lenders will allow parents to be removed from title with an administration and legal fees. However, other lenders may say that changing the people on Title equates to breaking your mortgage resulting in penalties. If you are buying a home for your child and will be on the deed, it is a good idea to see what the mortgage terms state about removing someone from title to help avoid future costs.

to get a lower interest rate

Another reason for breaking your mortgage could be to obtain a lower interest rate. Perhaps interest rates have plummeted since you bought your home and you want to be able to put more down on the principle, versus paying high interest rates. The first step before proceeding in this case is to work with your DLC mortgage broker to crunch the numbers to see if it’s worthwhile to break your mortgage for the lower interest rate – especially if you might incur penalties along the way.

pay off the mortgage

Wahoo!!! You’ve won the lottery, got an inheritance, scored the world’s best job or had some other windfall of cash leaving you with the ability to pay off your mortgage early. While it may be tempting to use a windfall for an expensive trip, paying off your mortgage today will save you THOUSANDS in the long run – enough for 10 vacations! With a good mortgage, you should be able to pay it off in 5 years, thereby avoiding penalties but it is always good to confirm.

Some of these reasons are avoidable, others are not. Unfortunately, life happens. That’s why it is best to seek the advice of an expert. Please book a discovery call with me so I can be part of your journey and help you get the best mortgage for YOU.

May employment growth in Canada stalled as the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2%

General Kimberly Coutts 10 Jun

May Jobs Report
 

In the first major data release since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates on Wednesday, Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey for May showed a marked slowdown from the April surge. Employment was little changed and the employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 61.3%, the seventh decrease in the past eight months.

The number of employed people increased by 27,000 following a gain of 90,000 in April. Year-over-year (y/y), employment rose 2.0% in May. Part-time employment rose by 62,000 (+1.7%) in May, while full-time employment edged down (-36,000; -0.2%). Job creation rose the most in health care and social assistance, followed closely by gains in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing. It fell the most in construction, largely reflecting labour shortages in that sector. Employment gains were reported in only three provinces in May, led by Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
 

Population growth isn’t likely to slow near-term, which means that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will push the jobless rate higher. The jobless rate rose to 6.2%, 1.4 percentage points above the July 2022 cycle low, and the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic).
 

Total hours worked were unchanged in May and were up 1.6% compared with 12 months earlier.
Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.1% year over year in May, following growth of 4.7% in April (not seasonally adjusted). This isn’t going to make the Bank of Canada happy, but there will be another Labour Force Survey release before the next BoC decision date on July 24.
 

Bottom Line

This report did not contain anything that would forestall another rate cut at the next meeting, with the possible exception of the rebound in wage inflation. This could well reverse with the June data.

CPI will be the key data release in the coming weeks–reported for May on June 25 and June on July 16. We believe the overnight policy rate will trend toward 2.%-to-3.0% from today’s 4.75% by the end of next year.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

The great news a lot of us have been waiting for!

General Kimberly Coutts 5 Jun

Finally the news we’ve been all waiting for.  That is Variable Rate Mortgage Holders, anyone with a HELOC or perhaps any other source of debt that is tied to the Bank of Canada Prime Rate.  Today, marks the first decrease since the Bank of Canada steadily increased the rate over the last several years.

They have acknowledged that the economy doesn’t need such a high interest rate any longer.  They will continue to proceed cautiously however as they want to ensure that the inflationary pressures don’t rebound like they have in the US in recent months.  As we know our inflation rate has been on a steadily decline over the last several months, reaching 2.7% in April.

While economists aren’t necessarily on the same page as to when the next cut will be, perhaps July 24th or perhaps September 4th fingers are crossed that we’ll see more rate cuts in the coming 12 months.

If you’re wondering how it might affect your own mortgage, check out the simple grid below.  You can also download my Mortgage Calculator and run some potential scenarios.

If you’re wondering why the turn of events, below is the Bank’s rationale for this move.

Canadian inflation

  • Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased further in April to 2.7%
  • The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also slowed and three-month indicators suggest continued downward momentum
  • Indicators of the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI have moved down further and are near their historical average, however, shelter price inflation remains high

Canadian economic performance and housing

  • Economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year
  • At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than the Bank previously forecast with weaker inventory investment dampening activity
  • Consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased
  • Labour market data show Canadian businesses continue to hire, although employment has been growing at a slower pace than the working-age population
  • Wage pressures remain but look to be moderating gradually
  • Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply

Global economic performance and bond yields

  • The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly in line with the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report projection
  • The U.S. economy expanded more slowly than was expected, as weakness in exports and inventories weighed on activity
  • In the euro area, activity picked up in the first quarter of 2024 while China’s economy was also stronger in the first quarter, buoyed by exports and industrial production, although domestic demand remained weak
  • Inflation in most advanced economies continues to ease, although progress towards price stability is “bumpy” and is proceeding at different speeds across regions
  • Oil prices have averaged close to the Bank’s assumptions, and financial conditions are little changed since April

Please note, this doe NOT affect your Fixed Rate mortgages which are tied to the Canada Bond Market.  If we’ve pre-approved you with fixed rates, this doesn’t affect your pre-approval purchase price amounts.  However it is important to note that in reviewing the Canada 5 Year Government Bond over the last 5 days it has trended downwards…so there MAY be decreases in fixed rates as well.

I know….it’s confusing….so if you have questions and want to chat about your situation, feel free to book a Strategy Call.  

Weaker-than-expected Canadian Q1’24 GDP Growth Increases Odds of a Rate Cut Next Week

General Kimberly Coutts 31 May

Odds of a Rate Cut Next Week Rise with Disappointed Canadian GDP Growth
 

The likelihood of a rate cut next week has increased due to disappointing Canadian GDP growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) only rose by 1.7% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of this year, which is well below the expected 2.2% and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 2.8%. Fourth-quarter economic growth was revised to just 0.1% from 1.0%. These figures have led traders to increase their bets on a Bank of Canada rate cut when they meet again next week.

In the first quarter of 2024, higher household spending on services—primarily telecom services, rent, and air transport—was the top contributor to the increase in GDP, while slower inventory accumulation moderated overall growth. Household spending on goods increased modestly, with higher expenditures on new trucks, vans and sport utility vehicles.

On a per capita basis, household final consumption expenditures rose moderately in the first quarter, following three-quarters of declines. Per capita spending on services increased, while per capita spending on goods fell for the 10th consecutive quarter.

Business capital investment rose in the first quarter, driven by increased spending on engineering structures, primarily within the oil and gas sector. Business investment in machinery and equipment also increased, coinciding with increased imports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts.

Resale activity picked up in Q1, driving the rise in housing investment, while new construction was flat. Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec posted the most significant volume increases in resales, while prices in these provinces fell in the first quarter.

New housing construction (+0.1%) was little changed in the first quarter, as work put in place decreased for all dwelling types except double houses. Costs related to new construction, such as taxes and closing fees upon change in ownership, increased in the quarter and were mainly attributable to newly absorbed apartment units in Ontario.

The household savings rate reached 7.0% in the first quarter, the highest rate since the first quarter of 2022, as gains in disposable income outweighed increases in nominal consumption expenditure. Income gains were derived mainly from wages and net investment income.

Investment income grew strongly in the first quarter of 2024 due to widespread gains from interest-bearing instruments and dividends. Higher-income households benefit more from interest rate increases through property income received.

Household property income payments, comprised of mortgage and non-mortgage interest expenses, posted the lowest increases since the first quarter of 2022, when the Bank of Canada’s policy rate increases began.
 

Bottom Line

This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on June 5. Traders in overnight markets put the odds of a rate cut at next week’s meeting at about 75%, up from 66% the day before. Bonds rallied, and the yield on the Canadian government two-year note fell sharply, reflecting this change in sentiment.

The Bank of Canada has good reason to cut the overnight policy rate next week. Core inflation measures have decelerated sharply in recent months, and the economy is growing at a much slower pace than the central bank expected. The Bank has been very cautious, and there remains the possibility that they will wait another month before pulling the trigger on rate cuts, but at this point, we see no reason to delay any further.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian CPI Inflation Eased In April, Raising the Chances of a June Rate Cut

General Kimberly Coutts 21 May

Canadian Inflation Eased Again in April, Raising the Chances of a June Rate Cut
 

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year (y/y) in April, down from 2.9% in March. This marks the fourth consecutive decline in core inflation. Food prices, services, and durable goods led to the broad-based deceleration in the headline CPI.

The deceleration in the CPI was moderated by gasoline prices, which rose faster in April (+6.1%) than in March (+4.5%). Excluding gasoline, the all-items CPI slowed to a 2.5% year-over-year increase, down from a 2.8% gain in March.

The CPI rose 0.5% m/m in April, mainly due to gasoline prices. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, it rose 0.2%.

While prices for food purchased from stores continue to increase, the index grew slower year over year in April (+1.4%) compared with March (+1.9%). Price growth for food purchased from restaurants also eased yearly, rising 4.3% in April 2024, following a 5.1% increase in March.

According to Bloomberg calculations, the three-month moving average of the rate rose to an annualized pace of 1.64% from 1.35% in March. That’s the first gain since December.
 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation measures, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim slowed to 2.9% y/y in April, and the median declined to 2.6% from year-ago levels, as shown in the chart below. Rising rent and mortgage interest costs account for a disproportionate share of price growth, with shelter costs up 6.4% year-over-year. Growth in mortgage interest costs slightly decreased in April but remained 24.5% higher than a year ago.

The breadth of inflationary pressures narrowed again in April, with the proportion of the CPI basket experiencing growth exceeding 3%, decreasing to 34% from 38% in March.
 

Bottom Line

April’s inflation readings largely met expectations but with underlying details (including further slowing in the BoC’s preferred ‘core’ measures) pointing to a further reduction in inflationary pressures. The Bank of Canada is as concerned about where inflation will go in the future as where it is right now. Still, Canada’s persistently softer economic backdrop (declining per-capita GDP and rising unemployment rate) increases the odds that price growth will continue to slow. The case for interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada continues to build. The central bank has every reason to cut rates at their next meeting on June 5. Still, given the BoC’s extreme caution, we must consider the possibility that they will wait until the July meeting to take action, and only if inflation continues to recede.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

April’s Strong Job Gains Likely Postpone Rate Cuts Until July

General Kimberly Coutts 10 May

April’s Strong Job Gains Likely Postpone Rate Cuts Until July
 

Today’s StatsCanada Labour Force Survey for April blindsided economists by coming in much more robust than expected. Employment in Canada rose a whopping 90,400 in April, the most in 15 months, following a decline in March, surpassing forecasts by a large margin. Substantial job gains were posted in both full-time and part-time work.

After four months of little change, private sector jobs finally took the lead in April. Employment gains were widespread across various industries within the services-producing sector, particularly in professional, scientific and technical services (+26,000; +1.3%), accommodation and food services (+24,000; +2.2%), health care and social assistance (+17,000; +0.6%) and natural resources (+7,700; +2.3%). However, there were declines in the goods-producing sector, notably utilities (-5,000; -3.1%).

Across Canadian provinces, employment increased in Ontario (+25,000; +0.3%), British Columbia (+23,000; +0.8%), Quebec (+19,000 +0.4%) and New Brunswick (+7,800; +2.0%).
 

Despite the surge in net new jobs, the unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1%. The jobless rate in April was up 1.0 percentage points from a year ago.
 

Average hourly wages among employees rose 4.7% in April, down meaningfully from the 5.1% pace in March. This is good news for the Bank of Canada and keeps the door open to rate cuts, probably in July. The overall strength of today’s report gives the Bank breathing room to postpone the next rate cut from June to July.
 

Bottom Line

The central bank meets again on June 5. The April CPI report will be released on May 21. This is by far the most important economic report for the Bank. They will look at the three-month trend in the core inflation measures. These figures have already fallen sharply, but given the strength in the jobs report, the central bank will likely wait another month before they begin cutting interest rates.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
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