Stronger-Than-Expected September Jobs Report Reduces Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts

Statistics Canada released September employment data today, showing a marked uptick in job growth and the first decline in the unemployment rate this year. Employment rose by 46,700 in September, following four months of little change.

Despite the employment gain, the employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who is employed—fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.7% in September. The employment rate has been on a downward trend since reaching a recent peak of 62.4% in January and February 2023, as growth in the population aged 15 and older in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) outpaced employment growth.

Also, good news: The number of private sector employees increased for the second consecutive month, rising by 61,000 (+0.5%) in September and bringing the year-over-year increase in private sector employment to 193,000 (+1.5%). Public sector employment fell by 24,000 (-0.5%) in September but was up 3.0% (+128,000) compared with 12 months earlier. Self-employment changed little in the month and on a year-over-year basis.

Full-time employment rose by 112,000 (+0.7%) in September, the most significant gain since May 2022. The increase was partially offset by a decline in part-time work (-65,000; -1.7 %).

The unemployment rate fell for the first time since January—a mere 0.1% decline, but we’ll take it, and now stands at 6.5%. This follows a rise of two ticks in August. The jobless rate is well above the 4.9% cycle low when job vacancies were rampant. Discouraged workers have dropped out of the labour force. The labour force participation rate is down 0.7 percentage points year-over-year.

Wage inflation is a big issue for the Bank of Canada, and this time, average hourly wages increased by 4.6%, down from the August rate of 5.0%.  Other measures of wage inflation are now even lower.

Bottom Line
Economists are still divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. Next week’s inflation data, released on Tuesday, October 15, will become all the more critical. The numbers are expected to be good, meaning low. The economy slowed markedly in the third quarter, and monetary policy remains overly restrictive. Stay tuned!

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, and down from a 2.5% gain in July 2024. Core inflation measures averaged 2.35% y/y and excluding mortgage interest, headline inflation was a mere 1.2%–well below the Bank’s target inflation level of 2.0%. This opens the door for a possible acceleration in Bank of Canada easing. Governor Macklem has suggested that a 50 bp rate cut is possible if inflation falls too fast as unemployment rises.

The deceleration in headline inflation in August was due, in part, to lower gasoline prices, a combination of lower prices and a base-year effect. The decline in August 2024 was mainly due to lower crude oil prices amid economic concerns in the United States and slowing demand in China. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.2% in August, down from 2.5% in July.

Mortgage interest costs and rent remained the most significant contributors to the increase in the CPI in August. The mortgage interest cost index continued to rise at a slower pace year over year in August (+18.8%) for the 12th consecutive month after peaking in August 2023 (+30.9%).

The CPI fell 0.2% m/m in August after increasing 0.4% in July. Lower prices for air transportation, gasoline, clothing and footwear, and travel tours led to a monthly decline. The CPI rose 0.1% in August on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.

The central bank’s two core inflation measures decreased, averaging a 2.35% yearly pace from 2.55% a month earlier, matching expectations. According to Bloomberg calculations, a three-month moving average of those measures fell to an annualized pace of 2.4% from 2.8% in July.

August marked the eighth month of headline rates within the central bank’s target range.

Bottom Line

The inflation print is the first of two CPI reports before the Bank of Canada’s next rate decision on Oct. 23. After the data were released, overnight swaps traders upped their bets on a larger-than-normal reduction at that decision, putting the odds of a 50-basis point cut at just over a coin flip. Prices declined in five of eight subsectors every month, which could trigger worries about deflation among central bank officials if it becomes a trend. Macklem has recently said the bank cares as much about undershooting the 2% inflation target as it overshooting it.

Markets now suggest a 47% chance of a 50 bps BoC cut on October 23 and a 57% probability of a 25 bps cut. Next week’s GDP data and the October 15 CPI report loom large in the 25 versus 50 bps debate.

Further rate cuts will no doubt spur a housing recovery, though we suspect a shallow one initially due to affordability issues in Ontario and B.C. However, three new mortgage rule changes (effective December 15) could speed things along. The changes will allow all buyers to get a longer 30-year mortgage for a new build, first-time buyers to get a similar term for all properties (both new and old), and buyers to get an insured loan on a home priced up to $1.5 million (versus $1.0 million currently). The latter change will allow smaller down payments and lower borrowing costs than an uninsured loan. The 5-year extended term will lower monthly mortgage payments by about 9%.

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern

National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another slight gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July. Still, the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly stuck in a holding pattern.

Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems increased by 1.3% month-over-month in August 2024, reaching their highest level since January and their second highest in over a year.

“Despite some fledgling signs of life to kick off the long-awaited monetary policy easing cycle, Canadian housing market activity still looks to be stuck in the same holding pattern it’s been in all year,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “That said, with ever more friendly interest rates now all but guaranteed later this year and into 2025, it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well-behaved in most of the country.”

At the end of August 2024, about 177,450 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 18.8% from a year earlier but still more than 10% below historical averages of around 200,000 listings for this time of the year.

New Listings

As of the end of July 2024, about 183,450 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 22.7% from a year earlier but still about 10% below historical averages of more than 200,000 for this time of the year.

New listings posted a slight 0.9% month-over-month increase in July. A much-needed boost in new supply in Calgary led to the national increase in new supply in Calgary.

With new listings up slightly and sales down slightly in July, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 52.7% compared to 53.5% in June. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a ratio between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of July, there were 4.2 months of inventory nationwide, unchanged from the end of June. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

“While it wasn’t apparent in the July housing data from across Canada, the stage is increasingly being set for the return of a more active housing market,” said James Mabey, Chair of CREA. “At this point, many markets have a healthier amount of choice for buyers than has been the case in recent years, but the days of the slower and more relaxed house hunting experience may be somewhat numbered.

At the end of August 2024, there were 4.1 months of inventory on a national basis, down from 4.2 months at the end of July. Continuing the theme of the market being in a holding pattern, this measure of market balance has been range-bound between 3.8 months and 4.2 months since last October. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.2% from June to July. While a slight increase, it was slightly larger than the June increase, making it just the second and the most significant gain in the last year.  While prices were up slightly at the national level, they were held back by reduced activity in the most extensive and expensive British Columbia and Ontario markets. Regionally, prices are rising in most markets.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 3.9% below July 2023. This primarily reflects how prices took off last April, May, June, and July—something that was not repeated over that same period in 2024. Year-over-year comparisons will likely improve from this point on.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $667,317 in July 2024, almost unchanged (-0.2%) from July 2023.

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged from July to August, following two small increases in June and July. That said, the bigger picture is that prices at the national level have been flat since the beginning of the year, posing no reason for potential buyers to rush to market.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 3.9% below August 2023. This mostly reflects price gains last spring and summer, followed by declines in the second half of last year. As such, it’s mostly likely that year-over-year comparisons will improve from this point on.

Bottom Line

Potential homebuyers remain on the sidelines awaiting further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. As long as home prices are flat, purchasers have no compelling reason to take immediate action. This should change gradually. With new supply on the market, sales should continue to rise this month.

With weak labour markets and falling economic growth, the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates by at least 25 bps on each decision date. Governor Macklem has commented that more significant rate cuts would be forthcoming if the economy weakens too aggressively and inflation falls below the 2% target. This would be welcome news for housing. We expect the overnight policy rate to fall to 2.5% before the end of next year. It is now at 4.25%–well above the current inflation rate.

In separate news, the Trudeau government has taken action to implement some of the budget measures to improve housing affordability. The federal government will make 30-year mortgages available to all first-time buyers and to buyers of newly built homes.

Canada cracked down on lengthy mortgage amortizations during the 2008 global financial crisis. Until this year, buyers who required government-backed default insurance on their mortgages were limited to 25-year amortizations.

Trudeau and  Finance Minister Freeland stepped toward loosening that rule in April, allowing 30-year amortizations on insured mortgages only for first-time buyers purchasing newly built homes.

The government will also begin allowing mortgage default insurance on homes worth up to $1.5 million, an increase from the current cap of $1 million, effective December 15. That means buyers can bid on more expensive homes even if they have less than a 20% down payment — as long as they purchase insurance.

Today’s announcement will significantly expand the pool of buyers who can access 30-year loans, which lowers monthly payments. According to Freeland, insured first-time buyers represent roughly 20% of the market in Canada, while new builds make up about 4%.

Weaker-Than-Expected August Jobs Report Raises Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts

Statistics Canada released August employment data today, showing continued growth in excess supply in labour markets nationwide. Employment changed little last month, up 22,100. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased a tick to 60.8%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the 10th decline in the past 11 months. On a year-over-year basis, the employment rate was down 1.2 percentage points in August, as employment growth (+1.6%) was outpaced by growth in the working-age population (+3.5%).

Full-time jobs declined by 44,000 while part-time work increased by 66,000. This was the fourth straight month of very modest employment gains.

The Bank of Canada expressed mounting concern about the rising output gap–the difference between economic growth at full employment and the current underemployment growth of less than 2%.

The number of private sector employees rose by 38,000 (+0.3%) in August, mainly offsetting a similar-sized decrease in the previous month (-42,000; -0.3%). The increase in private-sector employment in August was the first since April. Public sector employment and self-employment both changed little in August.

Year-over-year employment growth was concentrated among core-aged (aged 25 to 54) men and women as youth unemployment surged. Young immigrants have been hardest hit.

The unemployment rate rose 0.2 percentage points to 6.6% in August after holding steady in July. It was the highest since May 2017, outside of 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The unemployment rate has generally increased since April 2023, rising 1.5 percentage points.

In August 2024, 1.5 million people were unemployed, an increase of 60,000 (+4.3%) from July and 272,000 (+22.9%) from August 2023.

Among those unemployed in July, 16.7% had transitioned to employment in August (not seasonally adjusted). This was lower than the corresponding proportion in August 2023 (23.2%), indicating that unemployed people may face more difficulties finding work.

In August, the unemployment rate rose for men aged 25 to 54 years old (+0.4 percentage points to 5.7%) and for men aged 55 and older (+0.4 percentage points to 5.5%), while it was little changed for other major demographic groups.

Although the unemployment rate was up across all age groups year-over-year in August, the increase was most significant for youth (+3.2 percentage points to 14.5% in August). The rate was up for young men (+3.8 percentage points to 16.3%) and young women (+2.6 percentage points to 12.6%).

For core-aged people, the jobless rate was up 0.9 percentage points to 5.4% on a year-over-year basis in August. Increases for this age group were observed across all levels of educational attainment. On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was up in August for core-aged people with a high school diploma or less (+1.5 percentage points to 8.2%), for those with some post-secondary education below a bachelor’s degree (+0.7 percentage points to 5.5%) as well as for those with a bachelor’s degree or a higher level of education (+0.9 percentage points to 6.2%) (not seasonally adjusted).

In August, employment rose by 27,000 (+1.7%) in educational services, the first increase since January. There were 75,000 (+5.1%) more people employed in this sector than 12 months earlier.

In August, health care and social assistance employment increased by 25,000 (+0.9%). In the 12 months to August, employment gains in health care and social assistance (+157,000; +5.8%) were the largest of any sector and accounted for nearly half (49.6%) of total net employment growth.

Year-over-year employment growth in health care and social assistance was recorded in the private sector (+94,000; +8.6%) and the public sector (+77,000; +6.1%). Self-employment in health care and social assistance changed little over the period (not seasonally adjusted).

Canada’s unemployment rate has risen from 5% at the start of last year.

The youth unemployment rate continued to surge in August, rising to 14.5%, the highest since 2012 outside the pandemic.

Bottom Line

The data point to deteriorating labour demand in an economy that consistently fails to add jobs at the pace of population growth. And while there’s little evidence of widespread layoffs, the continued weakness is likely to add to disinflationary pressures, allowing the Bank of Canada to keep lowering borrowing costs at a gradual pace.

Still, the unexpected jump in the jobless rate will further fuel debate about deeper interest rate cuts. Traders in overnight index swaps boosted bets that the Bank of Canada would cut by 50 basis points at its Oct. 23 meeting. They now put those odds at around 40%, compared with about 30% the day before.

Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem reduced the policy rate by 25 basis points for a third straight time on Wednesday. Officials say they’re increasingly focused on downside worries and guard against the risk that growth slows too much. Speaking to reporters, Macklem said the Governing council had discussed a scenario wherein the economy and inflation were weak enough to require a more significant than a quarter-point reduction in borrowing costs. Policymakers also reiterated they’re concerned about undershooting their 2% inflation target. “We need to increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak and inflation falls too much,” the governor said.

This is the first of two job reports before the October rate decision. A Bloomberg survey found that most economists expect the bank to cut by 25 basis points at the next four meetings, bringing the policy rate to 3% by mid-2025.

The Canadian data were released simultaneously with the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls in the US, which rose by 142,000 following downward revisions to the prior two months. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting an increase of 165,000. Treasury yields fell as markets weighed whether the weaker job gains would prompt a larger than quarter percentage point cut from the Federal Reserve when they meet again on September 18.

Q2 Canadian Growth, Boosted By Record Population Gains, Slows In June And July

Canada’s economy grew a bit more than expected in the second quarter, but falling per-capita gross domestic product and softening household consumption assure the Bank of Canada that it will cut rates for a third consecutive meeting next week.

Canadian GDP rose 2.1% annually in the second quarter, beating the median estimate of 1.8% in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%. Q1 growth was revised up a tick to 1.8%. Q2 growth was the strongest since the first quarter of 2023 and was boosted by the sharp rise in population. Canada’s population grew by 1.3 million people last year to 40.8 million, according to Statistics Canada–its fastest annual pace in Canada since 1957. This is one of the world’s most extensive immigration programs as pressures mount on Trudeau’s government to slow future inflows.

At a 3.2% annual rate, Canada now ranks among the world’s fastest-growing countries, only behind a few African nations with high fertility rates. In 2022, the population grew 2.7%, or by 1.1 million people, a previous record.

According to Bloomberg News, “Only 2.4% of the increase last year came from net births, and the rest was driven by international migration, primarily non-permanent residents such as foreign workers and students. Without temporary immigration, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2%.”

Political pressure is mounting for the government to cut the influx of temporary residents entering the country in the next few years, but the Bank of Canada recently revised up the federal government’s forecasts of population gains this year and next.

Canada’s economy benefited from strong population growth, but this surge put pressure on infrastructure and services, worsened housing shortages, and led to soaring rents. Concerns about the declining standard of living prompted the government to reduce its immigration targets, serving as a cautionary tale for advanced economies that rely on newcomers to prevent economic decline.

The 2.1% real GDP growth in Q2—up from 1.8% in the first quarter of the year—reflected higher government spending, business investment in non-residential structures (primarily in the oil and gas sector), machinery and equipment, and household spending on services. Growth was reduced by declines in exports, residential construction, and household spending on goods. Population growth outpaced the increase in household spending in the second quarter, and, as a result, per capita household expenditures fell 0.4% after rising 0.3% in the first quarter. On a per capita basis, GDP fell for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Despite federal and provincial programs to boost housing, residential construction declined, falling in eight of the last nine quarters. Housing investment was down 1.9% in Q2, the most significant decline since the first quarter of 2023. The decrease in the second quarter of 2024 was driven by lower investment in new construction (-1.6%), as work put in place for single-family dwellings and apartments fell, primarily in Ontario. Renovations fell 2.6%, and ownership transfer costs, representing the resale market, declined 1.1%, led by less activity in Ontario.

Monthly GDP updates, also released today, suggest that the relatively strong spring performance was followed by a slower summer, as a flat reading for June looks to be followed by a similar result in July. The early reading in July is an evident disappointment, given some hints that activity picked up last month, and it casts some serious doubt on the BoC’s above consensus call of 2.8% growth in the current quarter.

Bottom Line

This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on September 4. Traders in overnight markets put the odds of a rate cut at next week’s meeting at about 98%. Moreover, the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, was tame. The Fed will no doubt follow through with its first rate cut when they meet later next month. Some speculation is that they could reduce rates by more than a quarter-point.

The Bank of Canada has every reason to continue easing monetary policy on every decision date this year–September 4, October 23 and December 11. They won’t stop until the overnight rate, currently at 4.25%, reaches 2.75%, likely in the second half of next year. This will boost housing activity.

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front

Inflation in Canada decelerated once again in July to its slowest pace in three years, assuring the central bank will cut rates for the third consecutive meeting on September 4. The US is also widely expected to begin easing monetary policy at its September confab.

The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.5% in July from 2.7% in June, matching market expectations. The deceleration in headline inflation was broad-based, stemming from lower prices for travel tours, passenger vehicles and electricity. This confirmed the Bank of Canada’s expectation that inflation would fall to 2.5% in the second half of this year.

The CPI rose 0.4% in July after falling 0.1% in June. Gasoline prices increased month over month in July (+2.4%), putting upward pressure on the monthly CPI figure. The CPI rose 0.3% in July on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trimmed edged down to 2.7% last month from 2.9% in June. The CPI median fell two ticks to 2.4%.

The central bank’s two core inflation measures decreased, averaging a 2.55% yearly pace, from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. The third chart below shows the 3- and 6-month moving averages for the average of median and trim CPI measured as an annualized percentage change. The 3- and 6-month moving averages fell in July, with the 6-month figure just above the central bank’s target of 2%.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading is good news for the Bank of Canada, giving them leeway to cut interest rates in two weeks. July marks the seventh consecutive month that the headline yearly inflation rate has been within the BoC’s target range, bringing the annual pace of price pressures back to its weakest levels since 2021.

Today’s inflation data will give the central bank confidence that the May rise in inflation was temporary. Annual inflation will reach the Bank’s 2% target by some time next year. This opens the way for the Bank to cut the overnight rate on September 4 by 25 bps to 4.25%.

In July, mortgage interest costs and rent remained the most significant contributors to the annual inflation rate change. Mortgage interest costs were up 21% in July compared with 22.3% in June, while rents rose 8.5% compared with 8.8%. Excluding shelter costs, the consumer price index rose 1.2% from a year ago versus 1.3% in June.

Labour markets have eased since the Bank’s last decision date. Canada shed 2,800 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate was steady at 6.4%, its highest level in over two years. Bank officials have expressed their concern that a further decline in the job market may delay a recovery in household spending, putting downward pressure on growth.

Canadian employment data, released August 9 by Statistics Canada, showed a continued slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn.

Employment declined again in July, down 2.8K. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are working—fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.9% in July. The employment rate has followed a downward trend since reaching a high of 62.4% in January and February 2023 and has fallen in nine of the last ten months.

In July 2024, an increase in full-time work (+62,000; +0.4%) was offset by a decline in part-time work (-64,000; -1.7%). Despite these changes, part-time employment (+3.4%; +122,000) has grown faster than full-time employment (+1.4%; +224,000) on a year-over-year basis.

Public sector employment rose by 41,000 (+0.9%) in July and was up by 205,000 (+4.8%) compared with 12 months earlier. Public sector employment gains over the last year have been led by increases in health care and social assistance (+87,000; +6.9%), public administration (+57,000; +4.8%) and educational services (+33,000; +3.3%) (not seasonally adjusted).

Self-employment changed little in July and was up by 55,000 (+2.1%) year-over-year.

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in July, following two consecutive monthly increases in May (+0.1 percentage points) and June (+0.2 percentage points). On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was up by 0.9 percentage points in July.

The jobless rate rose more for recent immigrants, especially youth than those born in Canada.

The unemployment rate for this group was 22.8% in July, up 8.6 percentage points from one year earlier. For recent immigrants in the core working age group, the unemployment rate rose by 2.0 percentage points to 10.4% over the same period.

In comparison, the unemployment rate for people born in Canada was up 0.5 percentage points to 5.6% on a year-over-year basis in July, while the rate for more established immigrants (who had landed in Canada more than five years earlier) was up 1.2 percentage points to 6.3%.

In July, employment in wholesale and retail trade decreased by 44,000 (-1.5%), reflecting a continuing downward trend since August 2023. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was down by 127,000 (-4.2%) in July 2024.

Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing declined by 15,000 (-1.0%) in July, marking the first decline since November 2023. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry showed little change in July 2024.

Public administration saw a rise in employment by 20,000 (+1.6%) in July, following a decline in June (-8,800; -0.7%). Employment in transportation and warehousing also increased in July by 15,000 (+1.4%), partially offsetting declines in May (-21,000; -1.9%) and June (-12,000; -1.1%).

British Columbia experienced the highest job losses, while Ontario and Saskatchewan were the only provinces to add employment.

Adjusted to US standards, the unemployment rate in Canada for July was 5.4%, which was 1.1 percentage points higher than in the United States (4.3%). Compared with 12 months earlier, the unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points in both Canada and the United States.

The employment rate has decreased in both countries over the past 12 months, with a larger decline in Canada. From July 2023 to July 2024, the employment rate (adjusted to US concepts) fell by 1.0 percentage points to 61.5% in Canada, while it declined by 0.4 percentage points to 60.0% in the United States.  Compared with 12 months earlier, the unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points in Canada and the United States.

Bottom Line

This is the only jobs report before the Bank of Canada meets again on September 4. Traders expect further rate cuts at the three remaining meetings this year.

Last week, weaker employment data in the US contributed to a selloff in global equities, as bonds rallied amid increased bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut borrowing costs more deeply and quickly than previously expected.

The interconnectedness of the economies of the United States and Canada implies that any further weakening in the former is likely to permeate into the latter. This scenario affords Macklem the latitude to normalize borrowing costs without the concern of outpacing the Federal Reserve to a degree that could jeopardize the Canadian dollar.