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Great News On The Canadian Inflation Front
General Kimberly Coutts 17 Apr
General Kimberly Coutts 17 Apr
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General Kimberly Coutts 10 Apr
As you likely have already heard today, the Bank of Canada announced it’s keeping its benchmark interest rate at 5.0%, unchanged from July of 2023. This means that there is NO change for those within variable rate mortgages, lines of credit or any other loans tied to the Bank of Canada Rate which continues to sit at 7.2%.
Governor Macklem’s prepared opening statement at today’s press conference was more dovish on inflation than in prior months. “We are seeing what we need to see, but we need to see it for longer to be confident that progress toward price stability will be sustained.” If things going according to today’s Monetary Policy Report forecasts, policymakers are likely to begin cutting the overnight rate in June. Once again these Bank of Canada Interest updates affect VARIABLE rate mortgages etc.
Over the last couple of weeks, we have seen a decrease in 3 & 5 year fixed rates due to the Bonds trending downwards, however US inflation unfortunately blew past expectations and caused a spike in the US 10 year Treasury Yield. Thus causing a spike in the Canadian Government of Canada Bond yield to jump up….Fixed Rates may go up once again so if you’re at all contemplating home ownership or a renewal I URGE you to get in touch asap so that we can complete a full financial analysis and get rate holds completed. Rate holds are good for 120 days and insured rates (mortgage rates for those that have less than 20% down payment) are sitting at 4.99% as of today.
I’m grateful to my lender partners at First National who provided a summary of the Bank’s key observations below.
Canadian Inflation
- CPI inflation slowed to 2.8% in February, with easing in price pressures becoming more broad-based across goods and services. However, shelter price inflation is still very elevated, driven by growth in rent and mortgage interest costs
- Core measures of inflation, which had been running around 3.5%, slowed to just over 3% in February, and 3-month annualized rates are suggesting downward momentum
- The Bank expects CPI inflation to be close to 3% during the first half of 2024, move below 2.5% in the second half, and reach the 2% inflation target in 2025
Canadian Economic Performance and Housing
- Economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply
- A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating
- Economic growth is forecast to pick up in 2024. This largely reflects both strong population growth and a recovery in spending by households
- Residential investment is strengthening, responding to continued robust demand for housing
- The contribution to growth from spending by governments has also increased. Business investment is projected to recover gradually after considerable weakness in the second half of last year. The Bank expects exports to continue to grow solidly through 2024
- Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025, and 1.9% in 2026. The strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026
Global Economic Performance and Bond Yields
- The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually
- The US economy has “again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending.” US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January
- The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than the Bank assumed in its January Monetary Policy Report
- Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased
- The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.75% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026
- Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025
Outlook
Based on the outlook, the Governing Council said it decided to hold the Bank’s policy rate at 5% and to continue to “normalize” the Bank’s balance sheet. It also noted that while inflation is still too high and risks remain, CPI and core inflation have eased further in recent months.
The Council said it will be looking for evidence that this downward momentum is sustained. The Governing Council is particularly watching the “evolution of core inflation,” and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour.
As it has said consistently over the past year, the Bank will remain “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”
Next Touchpoint
Stay tuned as the Bank returns on June 5th with another monetary policy announcement and economists are already lining up with predictions of a rate cut either then or in July. Fingers crossed.
If you’re contemplating getting into the market or wanting how to proceed with your renewal, get in touch to set up a Discovery Call. www.ChatWithTheMortgageMaven.
com I’m always here to assist and happy to chat.
General Kimberly Coutts 19 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 19 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 15 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 15 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 15 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 11 Mar
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General Kimberly Coutts 29 Feb
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General Kimberly Coutts 29 Feb
Amortization Options.
Your mortgage amortization period is the number of years it will take you to pay off your mortgage. Depending on your choice of amortization period, it will affect how quickly you become mortgage-free as well as how much interest you pay over the lifetime of your mortgage (a longer lifetime equals more interest, whereas a shorter lifetime equals less interest but also bigger payments).
Amortization Benchmarks
Let’s start by looking at the mortgage industry benchmark amortization period. This is typically a 25-year period and is the standard that is used by the majority of lenders when it comes to discussing mortgage products. It is also typically the basis for standard mortgage calculators. While this is the standard, it is not the only option when it comes to your mortgage amortization. Mortgage amortizations can be as short as 5 years and as long as 35 years!
Benefits of a Shorter Amortization
Opting for a shorter amortization period will result in paying less interest overall during the life of your mortgage. Choosing this amortization schedule means you will also become mortgage-free faster and have access to your home equity sooner! However, if you choose to pay off your mortgage over a shorter time frame, you will have higher payments per month. If your income is irregular, you are at the maximum end of your monthly budget or this is your first home, you may not benefit from a shorter amortization and having more cash flow tied up in your monthly mortgage payments.
Benefits of a Longer Amortization
When it comes to choosing a longer amortization period, there are still advantages. The first is that you have smaller monthly mortgage payments, which can make home ownership less daunting for first-time buyers as well as free up additional monthly cash flow for other bills or endeavors. A longer amortization also has its advantages when it comes to buying a home as choosing a longer amortization period can often get you into your dream home sooner, due to utilizing standard mortgage payments versus accelerated. In some cases, with your payments happening over a larger period, you may also qualify for a slightly higher value mortgage than a shorter amortization depending on your situation.
Let’s Chat!
I would be happy to help with the decision for the amortization that best suits your unique requirements and ensures you have adequate cash flow. However, it is important to mention that you are not stuck with the amortization schedule you choose at the time you get your mortgage. You can shorten or lengthen your amortization, as well as consider making extra payments on your mortgage (if you set up pre-payment options), at a later date.
Ideally, you are re-evaluating your mortgage at renewal time (every 3, 5, or 10 years depending on your mortgage product). During renewal is a great time to review your amortization and payment schedules or make changes if they are no longer working for you.
If you have any questions or are looking to get started on purchasing a home, don’t hesitate to book a Discovery Call with me today!