Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 bps to 4.25%

General Kimberly Coutts 4 Sep

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point
 

Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation gets closer to the target, the central bank wants to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy so inflation returns sustainably to the 2% target.

Overall, the economy’s weakness continues to pull inflation down. However, price pressures in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. Since the July Monetary Policy Report, the upward forces from prices for shelter and some other services have eased slightly. At the same time, the downward pressure from excess supply in the economy remains.

Tiff Macklem said today, “If inflation continues to ease broadly in line with the central bank’s July forecast, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in the policy rate. We will continue to assess the opposing forces on inflation and take our monetary policy decisions one at a time.”

The economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July. Together with the first quarter’s growth of 1.8%, the economy grew by about 2% over the first half of 2024. That’s a healthy rebound from our near-zero growth in the second half of 2023. The Bank’s July projection has growth strengthening further in the second half of this year. Recent indicators suggest there is some downside risk to this pickup. In particular, preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July, and employment growth has stalled in recent months.

That makes this Friday’s Labour Force Survey data for August particularly important. We expect economic activity to slow in the third quarter to rough 1.3%, keeping the Bank in an easing posture through next year.

The unemployment rate has risen over the last year to 6.4% in June and July. The rise is concentrated in youth and newcomers to Canada, who find it more challenging to get a job. Business layoffs remain moderate, but hiring has been weak. The slack in the labour market is expected to slow wage growth, which remains elevated relative to productivity.

Turning to price pressures, CPI inflation eased further to 2.5% in July, and the central bank’s preferred measures of core inflation also moved lower. With the share of CPI components growing above 3% around its historical norm, there is little evidence of broad-based price pressures. But shelter price inflation is still too high. Despite some early signs of easing, it remains the most significant contributor to overall inflation. Inflation remains elevated in some other services but has declined sharply in manufacturing and goods prices.

As outlined in the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report, inflation is expected to ease further in the months ahead. It may bump up later in the year as base-year effects unwind, and there is a risk that the upward forces on inflation could be more potent than expected. At the same time, with inflation getting closer to the target, the central bank must increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak and inflation falls too much. Judging from comments made at today’s press conference, the BoC is at least as concerned about too much disinflation–taking the economy into a deflationary spiral.

Macklem said, “We are determined to bring inflation down to the 2% target and keep it there. We care as much about inflation being below the target as we do about it being above it. The economy functions well when inflation is around 2%.”

With continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, the Governing Council reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Excess supply in the economy continues to put downward pressure on inflation, while price increases in shelter and some other services are holding inflation up. The Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. “Monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians”.
 

Bottom Line

Monetary policy remains restrictive, as the chart above shows. While the target overnight rate is now 4.25%, core inflation is only roughly 2.4%. Real interest rates remain too high for the economy to reach its potential growth pace of about 2.5%. Weaker growth implies a continued rise in unemployment and excess supply in other sectors.

In separate news, the US released data showing that US job openings fell to their lowest level since January 2021, consistent with other signs of slowing demand for workers.

US job growth has been slowing, unemployment is rising, and job seekers are having greater difficulty finding work, fueling fears about a potential recession.

Federal Reserve policymakers have made it clear they don’t want to see further cooling in the labour market and are widely expected to start lowering interest rates at their next meeting in two weeks.

In other news, consistent with a global economic slowdown, oil prices have plunged to new 2024 lows. Weak oil prices are a harbinger of lower inflation, growth and mortgage rates.

Bonds rallied in the wake of the disappointing US data, taking the 5-year government of Canada bond yield down to a mere 2.89%, well below the 3.4% level posted when the Bank of Canada began cutting interest rates in June. This decline in market-driven interest rates reduces fixed-rate mortgage yields. Moreover, today’s cut in the overnight rate will be followed soon by a 25 basis point reduction in the prime rate to 6.45%, reducing floating rate mortgage yields as well.

The Bank of Canada has two more decision dates this year: October 23 and December 11. At those meetings, the Bank is widely expected to continue its quarter-point rate cuts, taking the overnight rate down to 4.0% at year-end and 2.75% next year.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Q2 Real GDP Growth A Bit Stronger Than Expected, But Per Capita Real GDP Falls for The Fifth Consecutive Quarter

General Kimberly Coutts 30 Aug

Q2 Canadian Growth, Boosted By Record Population Gains, Slows In June And July
 

Canada’s economy grew a bit more than expected in the second quarter, but falling per-capita gross domestic product and softening household consumption assure the Bank of Canada that it will cut rates for a third consecutive meeting next week.

Canadian GDP rose 2.1% annually in the second quarter, beating the median estimate of 1.8% in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the Bank of Canada’s forecast of 1.5%. Q1 growth was revised up a tick to 1.8%. Q2 growth was the strongest since the first quarter of 2023 and was boosted by the sharp rise in population. Canada’s population grew by 1.3 million people last year to 40.8 million, according to Statistics Canada–its fastest annual pace in Canada since 1957. This is one of the world’s most extensive immigration programs as pressures mount on Trudeau’s government to slow future inflows.

At a 3.2% annual rate, Canada now ranks among the world’s fastest-growing countries, only behind a few African nations with high fertility rates. In 2022, the population grew 2.7%, or by 1.1 million people, a previous record.

According to Bloomberg News, “Only 2.4% of the increase last year came from net births, and the rest was driven by international migration, primarily non-permanent residents such as foreign workers and students. Without temporary immigration, Canada’s population growth would have been 1.2%.”

Political pressure is mounting for the government to cut the influx of temporary residents entering the country in the next few years, but the Bank of Canada recently revised up the federal government’s forecasts of population gains this year and next.

Canada’s economy benefited from strong population growth, but this surge put pressure on infrastructure and services, worsened housing shortages, and led to soaring rents. Concerns about the declining standard of living prompted the government to reduce its immigration targets, serving as a cautionary tale for advanced economies that rely on newcomers to prevent economic decline.
 

The 2.1% real GDP growth in Q2—up from 1.8% in the first quarter of the year—reflected higher government spending, business investment in non-residential structures (primarily in the oil and gas sector), machinery and equipment, and household spending on services. Growth was reduced by declines in exports, residential construction, and household spending on goods. Population growth outpaced the increase in household spending in the second quarter, and, as a result, per capita household expenditures fell 0.4% after rising 0.3% in the first quarter. On a per capita basis, GDP fell for the fifth consecutive quarter.

Despite federal and provincial programs to boost housing, residential construction declined, falling in eight of the last nine quarters. Housing investment was down 1.9% in Q2, the most significant decline since the first quarter of 2023. The decrease in the second quarter of 2024 was driven by lower investment in new construction (-1.6%), as work put in place for single-family dwellings and apartments fell, primarily in Ontario. Renovations fell 2.6%, and ownership transfer costs, representing the resale market, declined 1.1%, led by less activity in Ontario.

Monthly GDP updates, also released today, suggest that the relatively strong spring performance was followed by a slower summer, as a flat reading for June looks to be followed by a similar result in July. The early reading in July is an evident disappointment, given some hints that activity picked up last month, and it casts some serious doubt on the BoC’s above consensus call of 2.8% growth in the current quarter.
 

Bottom Line

This is the last major economic release before the Bank of Canada meets again on September 4. Traders in overnight markets put the odds of a rate cut at next week’s meeting at about 98%. Moreover, the US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer inflation, was tame. The Fed will no doubt follow through with its first rate cut when they meet later next month. Some speculation is that they could reduce rates by more than a quarter-point.

The Bank of Canada has every reason to continue easing monetary policy on every decision date this year–September 4, October 23 and December 11. They won’t stop until the overnight rate, currently at 4.25%, reaches 2.75%, likely in the second half of next year. This will boost housing activity.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Inflation Cools to 2.5% y/y in July, Ensuring BoC Rate Cut on Sept 4

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Aug

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front
 

Inflation in Canada decelerated once again in July to its slowest pace in three years, assuring the central bank will cut rates for the third consecutive meeting on September 4. The US is also widely expected to begin easing monetary policy at its September confab.

The annual inflation rate in Canada fell to 2.5% in July from 2.7% in June, matching market expectations. The deceleration in headline inflation was broad-based, stemming from lower prices for travel tours, passenger vehicles and electricity. This confirmed the Bank of Canada’s expectation that inflation would fall to 2.5% in the second half of this year.

The CPI rose 0.4% in July after falling 0.1% in June. Gasoline prices increased month over month in July (+2.4%), putting upward pressure on the monthly CPI figure. The CPI rose 0.3% in July on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis.
 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trimmed edged down to 2.7% last month from 2.9% in June. The CPI median fell two ticks to 2.4%.

The central bank’s two core inflation measures decreased, averaging a 2.55% yearly pace, from a downwardly revised 2.7% a month earlier. The third chart below shows the 3- and 6-month moving averages for the average of median and trim CPI measured as an annualized percentage change. The 3- and 6-month moving averages fell in July, with the 6-month figure just above the central bank’s target of 2%.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading is good news for the Bank of Canada, giving them leeway to cut interest rates in two weeks. July marks the seventh consecutive month that the headline yearly inflation rate has been within the BoC’s target range, bringing the annual pace of price pressures back to its weakest levels since 2021.

Today’s inflation data will give the central bank confidence that the May rise in inflation was temporary. Annual inflation will reach the Bank’s 2% target by some time next year. This opens the way for the Bank to cut the overnight rate on September 4 by 25 bps to 4.25%.

In July, mortgage interest costs and rent remained the most significant contributors to the annual inflation rate change. Mortgage interest costs were up 21% in July compared with 22.3% in June, while rents rose 8.5% compared with 8.8%. Excluding shelter costs, the consumer price index rose 1.2% from a year ago versus 1.3% in June.

Labour markets have eased since the Bank’s last decision date. Canada shed 2,800 jobs in July, and the unemployment rate was steady at 6.4%, its highest level in over two years. Bank officials have expressed their concern that a further decline in the job market may delay a recovery in household spending, putting downward pressure on growth.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Canadian Housing Market On Pause In July

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Aug

Canadian Housing Market Paused In July
 

Despite the continued decline in interest rates, the Canadian housing market saw summer doldrums last month. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.7% monthly while rising 4.8% from year-ago levels. A significant uptick in sales activity is likely this fall, reflecting both Bank of Canada easing and a dramatic drop in market-driven interest rates. Yesterday, the US CPI dipped below 3.0% y/y, causing a significant bond rally. The five-year government of Canada bond yield fell to just under 3.0%, a harbinger of further declines in fixed mortgage rates. The Bank is widely expected to cut the overnight policy rate again by 25 basis points when it meets again on September 4. With good news on the US inflation front, the Fed will likely cut the Fed funds rate as well, its first rate cut this cycle.

Monthly changes in sales activity were generally small amongst the larger centres in July. Interestingly, declines in Calgary and the Greater Toronto Area were offset mainly by gains in Edmonton and Hamilton-Burlington.
 

New Listings

As of the end of July 2024, about 183,450 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 22.7% from a year earlier but still about 10% below historical averages of more than 200,000 for this time of the year.

New listings posted a slight 0.9% month-over-month increase in July. The national increase was led by a much-needed boost in new supply in Calgary.

With new listings up slightly and sales down slightly in July, the national sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 52.7% compared to 53.5% in June. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a ratio between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 4.2 months of inventory nationwide at the end of July, unchanged from the end of June. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

“While it wasn’t apparent in the July housing data from across Canada, the stage is increasingly being set for the return of a more active housing market,” said James Mabey, Chair of CREA. “At this point, many markets have a healthier amount of choice for buyers than has been the case in recent years, but the days of the slower and more relaxed house hunting experience may be somewhat numbered.
 

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) increased 0.2% from June to July. While a slight increase, it was slightly larger than the June increase, making it just the second and the most significant gain in the last year.  While prices were up slightly at the national level, they were held back by reduced activity in the largest and most expensive British Columbia and Ontario markets. Regionally, prices are rising in most markets.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 3.9% below July 2023. This primarily reflects how prices took off last April, May, June, and July – something that was not repeated over that same period in 2024. It’s mostly likely that year-over-year comparisons will improve from this point on.

The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $667,317 in July 2024, almost unchanged (-0.2%) from July 2023.
 

Bottom Line

Housing activity will gradually accelerate over the next year as interest rates continue to fall. Many buyers remain on the sidelines awaiting additional interest rate cuts, likely for the remainder of this year and well into 2025. The Bank of Canada will reduce the overnight rate from today’s 4.5% level to roughly 2.75% next year. While housing affordability remains a problem, pent-up demand is mounting, and construction activity is strong. Renewed interest in home purchases is likely during the back-to-school season.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Employment Growth Stalled In July, While the Jobless Rate Held Steady at 6.4%

General Kimberly Coutts 13 Aug

Weaker-Than-Expected July Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In-Play
 

Canadian employment data, released August 9 by Statistics Canada, showed a continued slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn.

Employment declined again in July, down 2.8K. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are working—fell 0.2 percentage points to 60.9% in July. The employment rate has followed a downward trend since reaching a high of 62.4% in January and February 2023 and has fallen in nine of the last ten months.

In July 2024, an increase in full-time work (+62,000; +0.4%) was offset by a decline in part-time work (-64,000; -1.7%). Despite these changes, part-time employment (+3.4%; +122,000) has grown faster than full-time employment (+1.4%; +224,000) on a year-over-year basis.

Public sector employment rose by 41,000 (+0.9%) in July and was up by 205,000 (+4.8%) compared with 12 months earlier. Public sector employment gains over the last year have been led by increases in health care and social assistance (+87,000; +6.9%), public administration (+57,000; +4.8%) and educational services (+33,000; +3.3%) (not seasonally adjusted).

Self-employment changed little in July and was up by 55,000 (+2.1%) year-over-year.
 

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.4% in July, following two consecutive monthly increases in May (+0.1 percentage points) and June (+0.2 percentage points). On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was up by 0.9 percentage points in July.

The jobless rate rose more for recent immigrants, especially youth than those born in Canada.

The unemployment rate for this group was 22.8% in July, up 8.6 percentage points from one year earlier. For recent immigrants in the core working age group, the unemployment rate rose by 2.0 percentage points to 10.4% over the same period.

In comparison, the unemployment rate for people born in Canada was up 0.5 percentage points to 5.6% on a year-over-year basis in July, while the rate for more established immigrants (who had landed in Canada more than five years earlier) was up 1.2 percentage points to 6.3%.
 

In July, employment in wholesale and retail trade decreased by 44,000 (-1.5%), reflecting a continuing downward trend since August 2023. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the industry was down by 127,000 (-4.2%) in July 2024.

Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing declined by 15,000 (-1.0%) in July, marking the first decline since November 2023. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry showed little change in July 2024.

Public administration saw a rise in employment by 20,000 (+1.6%) in July, following a decline in June (-8,800; -0.7%). Employment in transportation and warehousing also increased in July by 15,000 (+1.4%), partially offsetting declines in May (-21,000; -1.9%) and June (-12,000; -1.1%).

British Columbia experienced the highest job losses, while Ontario and Saskatchewan were the only provinces to add employment.

Adjusted to US standards, the unemployment rate in Canada for July was 5.4%, which was 1.1 percentage points higher than in the United States (4.3%). Compared with 12 months earlier, the unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points in both Canada and the United States.

The employment rate has decreased in both countries over the past 12 months, with a larger decline in Canada. From July 2023 to July 2024, the employment rate (adjusted to US concepts) fell by 1.0 percentage points to 61.5% in Canada, while it declined by 0.4 percentage points to 60.0% in the United States.  Compared with 12 months earlier, the unemployment rate increased by 0.8 percentage points in Canada and the United States.
 

Bottom Line

This is the only jobs report before the Bank of Canada meets again on September 4. Traders expect further rate cuts at the three remaining meetings this year.

Last week, weaker employment data in the US contributed to a selloff in global equities, as bonds rallied amid increased bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut borrowing costs more deeply and quickly than previously expected.

The interconnectedness of the economies of the United States and Canada implies that any further weakening in the former is likely to permeate into the latter. This scenario affords Macklem the latitude to normalize borrowing costs without the concern of outpacing the Federal Reserve to a degree that could jeopardize the Canadian dollar.
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Bank of Canada cuts key interest rate again, more cuts ‘reasonable’ if inflation keeps easing

General Kimberly Coutts 24 Jul

Happy Wednesday!

Not sure where all the sunshine went this morning given the good news that the Bank of Canada once again reduced rates but here we are with another .25% rate reduction!

Great news for those variable rate mortgage holders, those with balances on Lines of Credit and also those with car loans tied to Prime.  If you want to see how it may affect you feel free to download my Mortgage Calculator and do the math on your own personal mortgage as it’s somewhat dependent on your term, discount and of course amortization.

Please note that Bank of Canada Prime is now officially at 6.7% down from its high of 7.2% thus your interest rate will be Prime of 6.7% – the discount you obtained.

For those of you in Variable Rate Mortgages you’ll likely see the decrease in monthly payment next month or in September depending on when your payment is.  For those in Static Variable Rate Mortgages, your monthly payment won’t be impacted however you’ll see more of the payment go towards your monthly principal.

With the decrease in the Bank of Canada Prime there may now be a psychological shift for those that have been sitting on the sidelines.  If that is you, please feel free to get in touch to book a Discovery Call.

In the meantime, check out this interview that I did with Coreena Robertson from The Market Online where we discuss a variety of topics from how a rate cut might affect the real estate market, the difference between a variable and fixed rate and what to do with the equity in your home.

Below is a summary of the Bank’s rationale for this decision, including it’s forward-looking comments for signs of what may happen in the last 6 months of 2024.

Canadian inflation including shelter inflation

  • Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index moderated to 2.7% in June after increasing in May
  • Broad inflationary pressures are easing, and the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been below 3% for several months and the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI is now near its historical norm
  • Shelter price inflation remains high, driven by rent and mortgage interest costs, and is still the biggest contributor to total inflation
  • Inflation is also elevated in services that are closely affected by wages, such as restaurants and personal care

Canadian economic performance and outlook

  • Economic growth “likely” picked up to about 1.5% through the first half of 2024, however, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economy’s potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased
  • Household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been “weak”
  • There are signs of slack in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 6.4% and with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work
  • Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated
  • GDP growth is forecast to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025, reflecting stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease
  • Residential investment is expected to grow robustly
  • With new government limits on admissions of non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025

Global economic performance and outlook

  • The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate of about 3% through 2026
  • While inflation is still above central bank targets in most advanced economies, it is forecast to ease gradually
  • In the United States, an anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating and US inflation appearing to resume its downward path
  • In the euro area, growth is picking up following a weak 2023
  • China’s economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports
  • Global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuances
  • The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in the Bank’s April’s Monetary Policy Report

Summary comments and outlook

The Bank forecasts that Canadian GDP will grow at 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.4% in 2026 and that a strengthening economy will gradually absorb excess supply through 2025 and into 2026.

As a result of an easing in broad price pressures, the Bank expects inflation to move closer to 2%, its long-stated goal. As a result, the Bank’s Governing Council decided to reduce the policy interest rate by 25 basis points.

It further noted that while ongoing excess supply is lowering inflationary pressures, price pressures in some important parts of the economy—notably shelter and some other services—are “holding inflation up.”

Accordingly, the Bank said it is carefully assessing these “opposing forces.” Monetary policy decisions therefore will be guided by incoming information and the Bank’s assessment of the implications for the inflation outlook.

Once again, the statement noted in conclusion that the Bank remains “resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.”

Don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions about your own personal situation.

Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut

General Kimberly Coutts 16 Jul

Canadian Inflation Fell in June, Setting the Stage For BoC Rate Cut
 

Inflation unexpectedly slipped 0.1% (not seasonally adjusted) in June, following a 0.6% increase in May. This was the first decline in six months. The monthly decrease was driven by lower prices for travel tours (-11.1%) and gasoline (-3.1%).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year over year in June, down from a 2.9% gain in May. The deceleration was mainly due to slower year-over-year growth in gasoline prices, which rose 0.4% in June following a 5.6% increase in May. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.8% in June.

Lower prices for durable goods (-1.8%) y/y also contributed to the slowdown in the all-items CPI in June, following a 0.8% decline in May. An increase in prices for food purchased from stores (+2.1%) moderated the deceleration, as well as a smaller decline for cellular services in June (-12.8%) compared with May (-19.4%).
 

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation, the trim and median core rates, exclude the more volatile price movements to assess the level of underlying inflation. The CPI trim was unchanged in June at 2.9%, above the market’s expectation of 2.8%. The CPI median fell two ticks to 2.6%.

The third chart below shows the 3- and 6-month moving averages for the average of median and trim CPI measured as an annualized percentage change. While the 3-month moving average has accelerated to about 3%, the 6–month measure has fallen to just over 2%.
 

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation reading is good news for the Bank of Canada, giving them leeway to cut interest rates next week. June marks the sixth consecutive month that the headline yearly inflation rate has been within the BoC’s target range, bringing the annual pace of price pressures back to its weakest levels since 2021.

Today’s inflation data will give the central bank confidence that the May rise in inflation was temporary. Annual inflation will reach the Bank’s 2% target by some time next year. This opens the way for the Bank to cut the overnight rate on July 24 by 25 bps to 4.5%.

According to Bloomberg News, traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada would cut rates next Wednesday, putting the odds at about 90% compared with 80% before the release.

Yesterday’s business and consumer outlook surveys point towards slowing growth in firms’ input and selling prices amid a weaker economic backdrop. Inflation expectations fell in June and are now in the BoC’s target range. Businesses are expecting weaker soft demand. The unemployment rate is trending higher, and the share of firms reporting labour shortages is near a record low. Companies’ expectations for wage increases over the next year have slowed. Overall, capacity constraints “have returned close to their historical average.”

The central bank flagged that consumer survey respondents still think domestic factors, including fiscal policy and elevated housing costs, are “contributing to high inflation.” Home-buying intentions are near historical averages, the bank said, and are supported by “strong plans” among newcomers to buy homes.

Another rate cut is coming next week, which will help to spur housing activity
Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Weaker-than-expected Jobs Report Keeps Further BoC Rate Cuts In Play

General Kimberly Coutts 5 Jul

Weaker-Than-Expected June Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In Play
 

Canadian employment data, released today by Statistics Canada, showed a marked slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Nevertheless, the Bank of Canada will continue to cut interest rates by at least 175 basis points through next year. Whether they do so at their next meeting on July 24 will depend on the June inflation data released on July 16.

Canada shed 1,400 jobs last month, following a 26,700 increase in May. Economists had been expecting a stronger showing. Monthly job gains have averaged around 30,000 in the past year, while labour force growth has been more than 50,000, causing the jobless rate to rise. Full-time jobs declined marginally while part-time work edged upward. Job losses in June were led by decreases in transportation and warehousing, information and recreation, and wholesale and retail trade.

Regionally, jobs decreased in Quebec but rose in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador.
 

Population growth isn’t likely to slow shortly, meaning that anything short of about a 45k employment gain will increase the jobless rate. The jobless rate rose to 6.4%, up two ticks from a month earlier and 1.6 percentage points above the July 2022 cycle low. It is also the highest level since 2017 (excluding the pandemic). The rising unemployment rate aligned with the Bank of Canada’s rhetoric that higher interest rates damaged the labour market and strengthened the case for further rate cuts to support the economy.
 

Total hours worked were down 0.4% in June. On a year-over-year basis, total hours worked were up 1.1%.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 5.4% in June on a year-over-year basis, following growth of 5.1% in May (not seasonally adjusted). This won’t sit well with the central bank’s Governing Council, but they realize that wage inflation is a lagging economic indicator, and rapidly rising unemployment will ultimately dampen wage inflation.

The data were released at the same time as US payrolls, which showed hiring moderated in June and prior months were revised lower. This boosts the odds that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut interest rates in the coming months. Fluctuations in the loonie are often driven by the difference between US and Canadian interest rates, owing to the two countries’ tight economic links.
 

Bottom Line

Traders in overnight swaps increased their bets that the Bank of Canada will cut borrowing costs again in July, putting the odds at around two-thirds, up from around 55% before the release.

In a speech last week, Macklem said it’s “not surprising” that wages are moderating more slowly than inflation because wages tend to lag the trend in job growth. He also said the unemployment rate could rise further, but a significant increase isn’t needed to get inflation back to the 2% target.

Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper

General Kimberly Coutts 2 Jul

The Bank of Canada finally began an easing cycle on June 5, taking their overnight policy rate down 25 bps to 4.75%–the first major central bank to do so. The housing market has languished over the past year with extremely weak affordability.

The Multiple-Listing Service Home Price Index fell again in May and is now down 2.4% year-over-year and is off 14.4% from the early 2022 peak when the overnight rate was a mere 25 basis points. Average transaction prices are down 4% y/y and off nearly 15% from the high.

Except for Calgary, housing markets across the country are in a buyers’ market as inventories of active listings have risen and sales have slowed. Calgary prices were up just under 10% y/y in May, pushing new record highs by the month. In the meantime, Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal prices are all flat or down from a year ago, and they are still tucked below the levels seen at the early 2022 high.

The significant drivers in Calgary’s outperformance have been more substantial population growth (juiced by interprovincial inflows), better affordability, and valuations that might make some sense for investors.

Even with their lackluster performance since the Bank of Canada began hiking interest rates in March 2022, home prices are still high, having tripled in the past two decades, posting an average 5.7% annual rise, while inflation averaged only 2.2% per year over the same period.

Moreover, the total return on the Toronto Stock Exchange over the same period has been much higher still, averaging 7.9% annually over the past two decades. Despite the recent mini selloff in stocks, the TSX has boasted a more robust return than housing over time. And the US stock market has significantly outperformed the TSX.

Of course, there are significant differences between these two asset classes. Stocks are passive investments that do not provide a place to live or require repairs and maintenance. Housing is more than just a financial investment; it is a lifestyle choice that provides the necessary shelter.

The Bank of Canada will continue to lower interest rates as inflation reaches its 2% target. We expect the overnight rate to fall to about 3% by the end of the easing cycle. But even with only one quarter-point rate cut, bond yields have already fallen significantly in anticipation.

Many mortgage lenders, including three of Canada’s Big Six banks, are slashing fixed mortgage rates, a welcome development for those facing renewal in the coming months. Lenders have already started trimming rates in the wake of a nearly 40-basis-point drop in bond yields, which typically leads fixed mortgage rate pricing.

Over 70% of outstanding mortgages will be renewed within two years. Falling mortgage rates could help soften the payment shock expected for the estimated 2.2 million mortgages that will be renewing at higher rates in the next two years.

But just because rates are falling doesn’t mean all lenders will offer equally low rates in their renewal letters. Typically, they don’t just hand out their especially low rates. That’s where a mortgage broker provides real value, educating borrowers about alternative options, which can be used to haggle a better rate even if they decide not to switch lenders.

For insurable mortgages, the borrower does not need to re-qualify when switching lenders. However, for uninsured mortgage switches, OSFI head Peter Routledge recently rejected renewed calls to remove the mortgage stress test for federally regulated lenders. Knowing your options to improve your bargaining power with your existing lender still pays.

There is a record number of resale condos on the market, and new construction is at a record high. While there remains a longer-term shortage of affordable housing for rent and purchase, it will probably be another year before markets equilibrate and sellers have the advantage.

Housing activity has likely bottomed and will increase as interest rates fall.

Entering the Housing Market

General Kimberly Coutts 2 Jul

 

With the first Bank of Canada rate drop having occurred in June, many individuals are looking at the housing market with renewed vigor and an expectation that rates will continue to come down to a more sustainable level.

If you are someone who is considering entering the housing market this summer, there are a few things you should keep in mind:

With the first Bank of Canada rate drop having occurred in June, many individuals are looking at the housing market with renewed vigor and an expectation that rates will continue to come down to a more sustainable level.

If you are someone who is considering entering the housing market this summer, there are a few things you should keep in mind:

Determine Your Budget: Download my app from Google Play or the Apple iStore to help you calculate mortgage payments, affordability, the income required to qualify, and even estimate your closing costs! It also allows you to connect directly with me through the app so that I can answer any questions you have right in the palm of your hand.

Save For a Down Payment: Your typical down payment should be at least 5% of the purchase price, though 20% down is preferable as anything below that requires default insurance. Your down payment can be done through your own savings account or RRSP’s.

  • Thanks to the Federal Government’s Home Buyer’s Plan, first-time homebuyers can leverage up to $60,000 from their RRSPs (maximum of $120,000 for a couple).
  • PRO TIP: The First Home Savings Account (FHSA) is specifically designed to help first-time homebuyers save for their down payment without having to pay taxes on the interest earned on their savings.

Take Advantage of First-Time Buyer Programs: Did you know? First-time home buyers are eligible for an exemption, reducing the amount of property transfer tax paid, depending on the property’s value.

  • PRO TIP: In addition, Ontario, British Columbia, Prince Edward Island, and the City of Toronto offer land transfer tax rebates for first-time homebuyers.

Get Pre-Approved: This means that a lender has stated (in writing) that you qualify for a mortgage and what amount, based on submitted documentation of your current income and credit history. A pre-approval usually specifies a term, interest rate, and mortgage amount and is typically valid for a brief period, assuming various conditions are met.

There are a few benefits to pre-approval such as:

  • It confirms the maximum amount you can afford to spend.
  • It can secure you an interest rate for 90-120 while you shop for your new home
  • It lets the seller know that securing financing should not be an issue. This is extremely important for competitive markets where lots of offers may be coming in.

Understand the Closing Costs: Closing costs are a one-time fee associated with the sale of a home and are separate from the mortgage insurance and down payment. Typically, these costs range from 1.5-4% of the purchase price, depending on your location. Factoring these costs into your maximum budget can help you narrow down an entirely affordable home and ensure future financial stability and security.

Here are a few closing costs to keep an eye out for:

  • Land Transfer Tax: This is calculated as a percentage of the purchase price of your home, with the amount varying in each province. Some cities, such as Toronto, also have a municipal LTT.
  • Legal Fees and Disbursements: You can expect to incur a minimum of $500 (plus GST/HST) on legal fees for the preparation and recording of official documents.
  • Title Insurance: Most lenders require title insurance to protect against losses in the event of a property ownership dispute. This is purchased through your lawyer/notary and is typically $300 or more.
  • PST on CMHC Insurance: Though CMHC insurance itself is financed through the mortgage, PST on the insurance is typically paid at the lawyers and sometimes deducted from your advance.
  • Home Inspection Fee: A home inspection is highly recommended as a condition of your Offer to Purchase to prevent any future surprises. This can cost around $500.
  • Appraisal Fee: An appraisal is performed to certify the lender of the resale value of the home in the case you default on the mortgage. The cost is usually $400 – $600 but is typically covered by the lender.
  • Property Insurance: Property insurance covers the cost of replacing your home and its contents, and must be in place on closing day. This is paid in monthly or annual premiums.
  • Prepaid Utility Bills: You may need to reimburse the previous owner of your property for prepaid costs such as property taxes, utilities, and so forth.
  • Property Taxes: Property taxes are due on an annual basis and are calculated as a percentage of the home value and vary by municipality. You also may need to reimburse the previous property owner if he/she has already paid property taxes for the full year.

Getting Proper Coverage: Purchasing a home is likely the largest investment you will make, and you want to ensure it is protected.

Various insurance items can be obtained for your home, including:

  • Title Insurance: Required by most lenders to protect against losses should a property ownership dispute arise. This insurance is done through your lawyer/notary and typically runs $100-$300.
  • Mortgage Protection Insurance: An optional debt replacement that protects your family should anything happen in the future. Many homeowners believe they are covered through their life insurance policy, but the Manulife Mortgage Protection Plan is different. Before closing, it’s important to look at the costs and coverage for you!
  • Property & Fire Insurance: Mandatory and needs to be arranged before your closing appointment. Not sure how much to budget for? Get quotes from various insurance companies! Your lawyer/notary or myself can provide recommendations
  • Default Insurance: Only required if you purchase a house with less than a 20% down payment.

Whether you’re looking at a condo, townhouse, rancher, or a two-story property, there is nothing quite like your first home! However, the mortgage process can be intimidating – and that’s where I come in! If you’re looking to get started on your home-buying journey, don’t hesitate to reach out to me today.
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