Tariff Turmoil Takes Its Toll

Statistics Canada released Q2 GDP data, showing a weaker-than-expected -1.6% seasonally adjusted annual rate, in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but a larger dip than the consensus forecast. The contraction primarily reflected a sharp decline in exports, down 26.8%, which reduced headline GDP growth by 8.1 percentage points. Business fixed investment was also weak, contracting 10.1%, mainly due to a 32.6% decline in business equipment spending.

Exports declined 7.5% in the second quarter after increasing 1.4% in the first quarter. As a consequence of United States-imposed tariffs, international exports of passenger cars and light trucks plummeted 24.7% in the second quarter. Exports of industrial machinery, equipment and parts (-18.5%) and travel services (-11.1%) also declined.

Amid the counter-tariff response by the Canadian government to imports from the United States (which has now been rescinded), international imports declined 1.3% in the second quarter, following a 0.9% increase in the previous quarter. Lower imports of passenger vehicles (-9.2%) and travel services (-8.5%; primarily Canadians travelling abroad) were offset by higher imports of intermediate metal products (+35.8%), particularly unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals.

Export (-3.3%) and import (-2.3%) prices fell in the second quarter, as businesses likely absorbed some of the additional costs of tariffs by lowering prices. Given the larger decline in export prices, the terms of trade—the ratio of the price of exports to the price of imports—fell 1.1%.

But the report was not all bad news. Consumer resilience was also evident. Household consumption spending accelerated in Q2. Personal spending rose 4.5% compared to 0.5% in Q1. Government spending also notably contributed to growth.

An improvement in housing activity also added to economic activity. Residential investment grew at a firm rate of 6.3%, compared to a decline of 12.2% in the first quarter of the year.

Final domestic demand rose 3.5% annualized, reflecting resilience and perhaps Canadians’ boycott of US travel or US products. However, income growth was up just 0.7% year-over-year (at an annual rate), which pulled the savings rate down one percentage point to 5.0%, potentially hampering consumers’ ability to continue their spending.

Inventories of finished goods and inputs to the production process increased by 26.9%, reflecting the Q1 stockpiling of goods that would be subject to future tariffs.

While Q2 was soft, June GDP was arguably more disappointing at -0.1% m/m, two ticks below consensus. Manufacturing was the surprise, falling 1.5%. Services were mixed, with gains in wholesale and retail offsetting some broader weakness. The July flash estimate was +0.1% (on the firmer side, given some of the soft data thus far), but the June figure makes it clear that the final print can be quite different.

The Bank had Q2 GDP at -1.5% in their July Monetary Policy Report, so the miss was minor. And, the strength in domestic demand highlights the economy’s resilience. One negative is that Q3 is tracking softer than their +1% estimate (closer to +0.5%), but it’s still very early, and things can change materially.

Bottom Line

The odds are no better than even for the Bank of Canada to cut rates when they meet again on September 17. There are two key data releases before then — the August Labour Force Survey, released August 5, a week from today, and the August CPI release on September 16. We would have to see considerable weakness in both reports to trigger a Canadian rate cut next month.

A Fed rate cut is far more likely, as telegraphed by Chair Jay Powell at the annual Jackson Hole confab. The battle between the White House and the Fed has intensified with President Trump’s firing of Governor Lisa Cook, the first Black woman on the Board and a Biden appointee. If Trump were to succeed, it would enable him to appoint a majority of the Federal Reserve Board, potentially allowing him to dictate monetary policy.

Trump wants significantly lower interest rates in the US, but even if he succeeds, only shorter-term rates would decline. The loss of Fed independence could lead to higher, longer-term interest rates, which could likely result in higher fixed mortgage rates in Canada. Moreover, inflation pressures could intensify, leading to continued upward pressure on bond yields and diminishing the potential appeal of floating-rate mortgage loans.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Homebuyers Return in July, Posting the Fourth Consecutive Sales Gain

Today’s release of the July housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed good news on the housing front. Following a disappointing spring selling season, National home sales were up 3.8% in July from the month before, with Toronto seeing transactions rebound 35.5% since March. However, the total number of Toronto sales remains low by historical standards.

On a year-over-year basis, total transactions have risen 11.2% since March.

There is growing confidence that the Canadian economy will resiliently weather the tariff trauma. The Canadian dollar is up, and longer-term interest rates have edged downward in the past ten days. Traders are now anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September.

Tuesday’s release of the Canadian CPI will provide another data point for the Bank of Canada. Economic growth has held up, in large part because much of the pain from tariffs has been confined to industries singled out for levies, including autos, steel and aluminum.

Shaun Cathcart, the real estate board’s senior economist, said, “With sales posting a fourth consecutive increase in July, and almost 4% at that, the long-anticipated post-inflation crisis pickup in housing seems to have finally arrived. The shock and maybe the dread that we felt back in February, March and April seem to have faded,” as people become less concerned about their future employment.

New Listings

New supply was little changed (+0.1%) month-over-month in July. Combined with the notable increase in sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 52%, up from 50.1% in June and 47.4% in May. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings roughly between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 202,500 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of July 2025, up 10.1% from a year earlier and in line with the long-term average for that time of the year.

“Activity continues to pick up through the transition from the spring to the summer market, which is the opposite of a normal year, but this has not been a normal year,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Typically, we see a burst of new listings right at the beginning of September to kick off the fall market, but it seems like buyers are increasingly returning to the market.

There were 4.4 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of July 2025, dropping further below the long-term average of five months of inventory as sales continue to pick up. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged between June and July 2025. Following declines in the first quarter of the year, the national benchmark price has remained mostly stable since May.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.4% compared to July 2024. This was a smaller decrease than the one recorded in June.

Based on the extent to which prices fell off in the second half of 2024, look for year-over-year declines to continue to shrink in the months ahead.

Bottom Line

Homebuyers are responding to improving fundamentals in the Canadian housing market. Supply has risen as new listings surged until May of this year. Additionally, the benchmark price was $688,700, 3.4% lower than a year earlier. That decrease was smaller than in June, and the board expects year-over-year declines to continue shrinking, it said in a statement.

While many expect the Fed to ease in September, I’m not sure it will happen. The producer price index came in hotter than expected this week. Fed action will depend mainly on the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE), the Fed’s favourite measure of inflation, which will be out on August 29.

US stagflation worries have emerged with the release of the July employment report, which showed considerable weakness, enough to get the head of the Bureau of Labour Statistics fired. The likelihood of a BoC cut will increase if the Fed begins a series of easing moves as the administration is demanding.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Today’s CPI Report Shows Headline Inflation Cooling, But Core Inflation Remains Troubling

Canadian consumer prices decelerated to 1.7% y/y in July, a bit better than expected and down two ticks from June’s reading.
Gasoline prices led the slowdown in the all-items CPI, falling 16.1% year over year in July, following a 13.4% decline in June. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.5% in July, matching the increases in May and June.

Gasoline prices fell 0.7% m/m in July. Lower crude oil prices, following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, contributed to the decline. In addition, increased supply from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) put downward pressure on the index.

Moderating the deceleration in July were higher prices for groceries and a smaller year-over-year decline in natural gas prices compared with June.

The CPI rose 0.3% month over month in July. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1%.

In July, prices for shelter rose 3.0% year over year, following a 2.9% increase in June, with upward pressure mostly coming from the natural gas and rent indexes. This was the first acceleration in shelter prices since February 2024.

Prices for natural gas fell to a lesser extent in July (-7.3%) compared with June (-14.1%). The smaller decline was mainly due to higher prices in Ontario, which increased 1.8% in July after a 14.0% decline in June.

Rent prices rose at a faster pace year over year, up 5.1% in July following a 4.7% increase in June. Rent price growth accelerated the most in Prince Edward Island (+5.6%), Newfoundland and Labrador (+7.8%) and British Columbia (+4.8%).

Moderating the acceleration in shelter was continued slower price growth in mortgage interest cost, which rose 4.8% year over year in July, after a 5.6% gain in June. The mortgage interest cost index has decelerated on a year-over-year basis since September 2023.

The Bank of Canada’s two preferred core inflation measures accelerated slightly, averaging 3.05%, up from 3% in May, and above economists’ median projection. Traders see the continued strength in core inflation as indicative of relatively robust household spending.

There’s also another critical sign of firmer price pressures: The share of components in the consumer price index basket that are rising by 3% or more — another key metric the central bank’s policymakers are watching closely — expanded to 40%, from 39.1% in June.

CPI excluding taxes eased to 2.3%, while CPI excluding shelter slowed to 1.2%. CPI excluding food and energy dropped to 2.5%, and CPI excluding eight volatile components and indirect taxes fell to 2.6%.

The breadth of inflation is also rising. The share of components with the consumer price index basket that are increasing 3% and higher — another key metric that the bank’s policymakers are following closely  — fell to 37.3%, from 39.1% in June.

Bottom Line

With today’s CPI painting a mixed picture, the following inflation report becomes more critical for the Governing Council. The August CPI will be released the day before the September 17 meeting of the central bank. There is also another employment report released on September 5.

Traders see roughly 84% odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut when they meet again on Sept 17–the same day as Canada. Currently, the odds of a rate cut by the BoC stand at 34%. Unless the August inflation report shows an improvement in core inflation, the Bank will remain on the sidelines.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady As Tariff Turmoil Continues

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the third consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The Governing Council noted that the unpredictability of the magnitude and duration of tariffs posed downside risks to growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.

Trade negotiations between Canada and the United States are ongoing, and US trade policy remains unpredictable.

While US tariffs are disrupting trade, Canada’s economy is showing some resilience so far. Several surveys suggest consumer and business sentiment is still low, but has improved. In the labour market, we are seeing job losses in the sectors that rely on US trade, but employment is growing in other parts of the economy. The unemployment rate has moved up modestly to 6.9%.

Inflation is close to the BoC’s 2% target, but evidence of underlying inflation pressures continues. “CPI inflation has been pulled down by the elimination of the carbon tax and is just below 2%. However, a range of indicators suggests underlying inflation has increased from around 2% in the second half of last year to roughly 2½% more recently. This largely reflects an increase in prices for goods other than energy. Shelter cost inflation remains the biggest contributor to CPI inflation, but it continues to ease. Surveys indicate businesses’ inflation expectations have fallen back after rising in the first quarter, while consumers’ expectations have not come down”.

The Bank asserted today that there are reasons to think that the recent increase in underlying inflation will gradually unwind. The Canadian dollar has appreciated, which reduces import costs. Growth in unit labour costs has moderated, and the economy is in excess supply. At the same time, tariffs impose new direct costs, which will be gradually passed through to consumers. In the current tariff scenario, upside and downside pressures roughly balance out, so inflation remains close to 2%.

The central bank provided alternative scenarios for the economic outlook. In the de-escalation scenario, lower tariffs improve growth and reduce the direct cost pressures on inflation. In the escalation scenario, higher tariffs weaken the economy and increase direct cost pressures.

So far, the global economic consequences of US trade policy have been less severe than feared. US tariffs have disrupted trade in significant economies, and this is slowing global growth, but by less than many anticipated. While growth in the US economy looks to be moderating, the labour market has remained solid. And in China, lower exports to the United States have largely been replaced with stronger exports to other countries.

In Canada, we experienced robust growth in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to firms rushing to get ahead of tariffs. In the second quarter, the economy looks to have contracted, as exports to the United States fell sharply—both as payback for the pull-forward and because tariffs are dampening US demand.

The gap between the 2.75% overnight policy rate in Canada and the 4.25-4.50% policy rate in the US is historically wide. Another cause of uncertainty is the fiscal response to today’s economic challenges. The One Big Beautiful Bill has passed, and it will add roughly US$4 trillion to the already burgeoning US federal government’s red ink. This has caused a year-to-date rise in longer-term bond yields, steepening the yield curve.

The slowdown of the housing sector since Trump’s inauguration has been a substantial drain on the economy.  The Monetary Policy Report (MPR) for July states that “growth in residential investment strengthens in the second half of 2025, partially due to an increase in resale activity after the steep decline in the first half of the year. Growth in residential investment is moderate over 2026 and 2027, supported by dissipating trade uncertainty and rising household incomes.”

Bottom Line

We expect the Canadian economy to post a small negative reading (-0.8%) in Q2 and (-0.3%) in Q3, bringing growth for the year to 1.2%. The next Governing Council decision date is September 17, which will give the  Bank time to assess the underlying momentum in inflation and the dampening effect of tariffs on economic activity.

If inflation slows over the next couple of months and the economy slows in Q2 and Q3 as widely expected, the Bank will likely cut rates one more time this year, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.50%, within the neutral range for monetary policy. Bay Street economists have varying views on the rate outlook (see chart above). While the Fed will hold rates steady today, despite the incredible pressure coming from the White House, the Bank of Canada could well cut rates one more time this year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

You found a better rate. Maybe you’re moving. Or consolidating debt. On the surface, breaking your mortgage might look like a smart move. But before you pull the trigger, take a closer look at the penalty. In many cases, it can eat up most of the savings or potentially worse.

This guide explains how prepayment penalties work, why they differ between lenders, and how to know whether refinancing early is actually worth it.

What Is a Prepayment Penalty?

A prepayment penalty is the cost your lender charges if you end your mortgage term early. It’s their way of recovering lost interest.

In Canada, the penalty is usually whichever is higher:

1. Three months’ interest
2. The Interest Rate Differential (IRD)

If you have a variable-rate mortgage, you’ll typically be charged three months of interest. If you have a fixed-rate mortgage, lenders often apply the IRD, which is usually higher.

How Three Months’ Interest Works

This is the simpler of the two. You multiply your mortgage balance by your interest rate, divide by 12, and then multiply by 3.

Example:

• Mortgage balance: $400,000
• Interest rate: 4.50%

($400,000 × 4.50%) ÷ 12 × 3 = $4,500 penalty

This formula applies to most variable-rate mortgages and some fixed-rate mortgages if the IRD ends up lower.

Understanding the Interest Rate Differential (IRD)

The IRD is the more complex and potentially more expensive penalty.

There are variations to how individual lenders calculate IRD. Here’s a simple example to illustrate the concept:The IRD formula measures how much more interest you’re paying compared to what the lender could earn by lending that money today. The larger the difference between your current rate and today’s posted rate for the remaining term, the bigger the penalty.

Example:

• Balance: $400,000
• Fixed rate: 4.80%
• Time left: 2 years
• Lender’s current 2-year posted rate: 3.00%

(4.80% – 3.00%) × 2 years × $400,000 = $14,400 penalty

That’s more than triple the cost of the three-month interest formula.

Why Penalties Vary So Much

The biggest reason for the variation is how lenders calculate IRD. Some banks use their inflated posted rates in the formula, which increases the penalty. Others, like many monoline lenders (non-bank lenders who work with mortgage brokers), use discounted rates that better reflect the market.

As a result, two homeowners with similar mortgages can face very different costs, depending on which lender they chose.

When Breaking Your Mortgage Makes Sense

Let’s say you want to refinance to a lower rate. Here’s how to do the math.

Scenario:

• Balance: $400,000
• Current rate: 4.80%
• Remaining term: 3 years
• Available new rate: 3.50%
• Penalty: $12,000
• Interest savings at new rate: $16,200 over 3 years

In this case, you come out ahead by $4,200 after covering the penalty.

But if the numbers were reversed…say the penalty was $16,200 and the savings only $12,000, you’d be locking in a loss.

How to Lower the Penalty or Avoid It

There are ways to reduce the impact of a prepayment charge:

Ask for details upfront Before signing a mortgage, ask how the lender calculates penalties. Make sure you understand the math.

Choose lenders carefully Monoline lenders often use fairer IRD formulas than the big banks.

Consider variable rates They usually come with smaller penalties, just three months’ interest.

Explore blend-and-extend options Some lenders will let you blend your current rate with a new one and avoid breaking the mortgage entirely.

Use your porting option If you’re moving homes, some lenders allow you to transfer your mortgage to a new property without a penalty.

Time your break strategically As your maturity date gets closer, the IRD penalty often shrinks. Waiting a few months can make a big difference.

The Bottom Line

A lower rate or better opportunity can be tempting. But breaking your mortgage isn’t always a financial win. The penalty can erase much of the benefit if you’re not careful.

Before making a decision, calculate both the penalty and the long-term savings. If you’re not sure, don’t hesitate to book a Discovery Call with me today! I can run the numbers and help you choose the best path forward.

Canada’s Economy Shows Amazing Resilience in June

The Canadian economy refuses to buckle under the weight of tariff uncertainty and further potential tariff hikes. The Labour Force Survey, released this morning for June, showed a surprising net new job gain of 83,100 positions, the most significant number of jobs this year. A whopping 84% of the employment gain was in part-time work.

June marked the first time in five months when the economy created enough jobs to keep unemployment from rising, after months of tepid gains and losses. At the same time, Canada added a net of 143,800 jobs over the last six months, the slowest first-half year pace since 2018, excluding the pandemic, with a monthly average of 24,000 job gains.

The central bank has held interest rates at 2.75% for the past two meetings, and its path ahead will depend mainly on how the economy and inflation adapt to tariffs and trade uncertainty. While the economy is expected to slow in the second quarter, firm inflation remains a concern for policymakers, who will set rates again on July 30.

Traders in overnight swaps trimmed expectations of easing at that meeting, putting the odds of a quarter percentage point cut at about 15%, from 30% before the release.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 years and older who are employed—increased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.9% in June. The employment rate had previously recorded a cumulative decline of 0.3 percentage points in March and April and had held steady in May.The number of employees increased in both the private (+47,000; +0.3%) and public (+23,000; +0.5%) sectors in June, while the number of self-employed workers was little changed.

The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% in May, the highest rate since September 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic). The uptick in May was the third consecutive monthly increase; since February, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points.

There were 1.6 million unemployed people in May, an increase of 13.8% (+191,000) from 12 months earlier. A smaller share of people who were unemployed in April transitioned into employment in May (22.6%), compared with one year earlier (24.0%) and compared with the pre-pandemic average for the same months in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (31.5%) (not seasonally adjusted). This indicates that people face greater difficulties finding work in the current labour market.

The average duration of unemployment has also been rising; unemployed people had spent an average of 21.8 weeks searching for work in May, up from 18.4 weeks in May 2024. Furthermore, nearly half (46.5%) of people unemployed in May 2025 had not worked in the previous 12 months or had never worked, up from 40.7% in May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

The layoff rate—representing the proportion of people who were employed in April but became unemployed in May as a result of a layoff—was 0.6%, unchanged from May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.9% in June, the first decrease since January. Before this decline, the unemployment rate had increased for three consecutive months ending in May 2025, reaching its highest level (7.0%) since September 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic).

In June, the unemployment rate among core-aged women fell 0.3 percentage points to 5.4%. Among core-aged men, it was little changed at 6.1%, as the number of job searchers held steady despite the employment gains.

Notably, age 25-54 employment rose 90,600 (which is the most significant increase on record, excluding the 2020-2022 pandemic distortion), lowering their jobless rate to 5.8%, reversing May’s increase.

There were 1.6 million unemployed people in June, little changed in the month but up 128,000 (+9.0%) on a year-over-year basis.

Compared with one year earlier, long-term unemployment was up in June 2025. Over one in five unemployed people (21.8%) had been searching for work for 27 weeks or more in June, an increase from 17.7% in June 2024.

More people are employed in wholesale and retail trade, health care, and social assistance.

Employment in wholesale and retail trade increased by 34,000 (+1.1%) in June, the second consecutive monthly gain. The increase in June was concentrated in retail trade (+38,000; +1.7%). On a year-over-year basis, employment in wholesale and retail trade was up by 84,000 (+2.9%).

Employment change by industry, June 2025

Employment also rose in health care and social assistance (+17,000; +0.6%) in June, the first notable change since December 2024. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in the industry grew by 78,000 (+2.8%) in June 2025.

Agriculture was the only industry with a notable employment decline (-6,000; -2.6%) in June. On a year-over-year basis, employment in agriculture was little changed. Amazingly, the manufacturing sector showed a considerable job gain in June, rising 10,500, breaking a four-month losing streak. GDP may bounce back in June, but Q2 is still tracking negative, suggesting productivity was much softer, too.

Regionally, Alberta, Ontario and Quebec accounted for the bulk of job gains, while Atlantic Canada was a soft spot. Ontario’s jobless rate slipped a tick to 7.8%, still well above the national average and the highest among the larger provinces. That comes in sharp contrast to B.C., where a significant decline in the labour force pulled the unemployment rate down 0.8 ppts to 5.6%, third lowest in the country behind Saskatchewan (4.9%) and Manitoba (5.5%).

Hours worked were solid as well,  up 0.5% m/m in June, leaving them up 1.3% annualized for the quarter.

Bottom Line

Wage inflation also continues to decelerate, providing some relief for the Bank of Canada. However, with the labour market showing some resilience, the odds of an overnight rate cut in July are minimal.

In other news, Trump Threatens 35% Tariff on Some Canadian Goods: The U.S. will put a 35% tariff on imports from Canada effective Aug. 1, President Trump announced on Thursday evening. But an exemption for goods that comply with the nations’ free-trade agreement, the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, would still apply, accounting for just over 90% of Canadian-US trade. A White House official said, stressing that it could change. WSJ

Barring a sharp decline in next week’s CPI data for June, which is unlikely, the strength in today’s jobs report and the recently heightened uncertainty on the trade front likely keep the BoC on the sidelines when it meets late this month.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Today’s Report Shows Inflation Remains a Concern

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% year-over-year in May, matching the 1.7% increase in April.

A reduced rent price increase and a decline in travel tour prices put downward pressure on the CPI in May compared with one year earlier. Smaller declines for gas and cellular services put upward pressure on the index compared with the previous month.

Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.7% in May, following a 2.9% increase in April.

The CPI rose 0.6% in May, and on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, it was up 0.2%.
The shelter component grew more slowly year over year in May, rising 3.0% following a 3.4% increase in April.

Rent prices rose 4.5% yearly in May, compared with a 5.2% increase in April. Rent price growth slowed the most in Ontario, with prices rising 3.0% in May following a 5.4% increase in April. The increased availability of rental units, coupled with slower population growth compared with the previous year’s spring, contributed to the slowdown in rent price growth in May. Given Ontario’s considerable weight nationally, these effects alone were enough to offset faster price growth in seven other provinces.

The mortgage interest cost index decelerated for the 21st consecutive month in May (6.2%)  after rising 6.8% in April.

Year over year, prices for travel tours fell 0.2% in May after rising 6.7% the previous month. Prices for air transportation decreased 10.1% on an annual basis in May, following a 5.8% decline in April.

Gasoline led the decline in consumer energy prices again this month, down 15.5% year over year in May after declining 18.1% in April. Gasoline prices in May remained below May 2024 levels, primarily due to the removal of the consumer carbon levy.

In May 2025, gasoline prices increased 1.9% month over month. The increase was primarily attributed to higher refining margins, partially due to higher switching costs to summer blends.

Prices for new passenger vehicles rose 4.9% yearly in May, after increasing 4.6% in April. Higher prices for some electric cars primarily drove this faster price growth.

After last month’s unpleasant inflation surprise, May’s data came in as expected. Top-line inflation continues to be restrained as the impact of the end to the consumer carbon tax offset changes in energy prices. Core inflation had good news, too, as all four measures cooled amid falling travel, tour and rent prices. The ongoing challenges in the housing market (particularly in Ontario) should help temper further rent gains in the coming months.

After last month’s uptick in core inflation, some give-back was expected. The labour market remains soft, and tepid domestic demand growth should keep a lid on inflationary pressures. Retail sales were weaker than expected. As has been the case this year, the outlook heavily depends on how trade negotiations evolve, but the soft economic backdrop should give the BoC space to deliver two more cuts this year.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has said that it doesn’t want to see a tariff problem turn into an inflation problem. It has also suggested that its CPI trimmed-mean and CPI Median measures of core inflation might be biased upward because of measurement issues (They are expected to publish more about this in the future.)

While the Bank won’t give up its hard-won credibility as an inflation fighter, further easing in economic growth will likely force the central bank to cut rates one or two more times this year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Global Tariff Uncertainty Sidelines Buyers

Canadian existing home sales recorded over the MLS Systems climbed 3.6% between April and May, a normally strong month for housing, marking the first gain in activity since last November.

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Calgary, and Ottawa led the monthly increase.

“May 2025 not only saw home sales move higher at the national level for the first time in more than six months, but prices at the national level also stopped falling,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “It’s only one month of data, and one car doesn’t make a parade, but there is a sense that maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos and uncertainty.”

New Listings

New supply declined by 1% month-over-month in April. Combined with flat sales, the national sales-to-new listings ratio climbed to 46.8% compared to 46.4% in March. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of April 2025, 183,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 14.3% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average of around 201,000 listings.

“The number of homes for sale across Canada has almost returned to normal, but that is the result of higher inventories in B.C. and Ontario, and tight inventories everywhere else,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair.

There were 5.1 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2025, which is in line with the long-term average of five months. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.4 months.

New supply rose by 3.1% month-over-month in May. Given a similar increase in sales activity, the national sales-to-new listings ratio was 47%, almost unchanged from 46.8% in April. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 54.9%, with readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of May 2025, 201,880 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 13.2% from a year earlier but remaining about 5% below the long-term average of around 211,500 listings for the month.

“May saw an increased number of new listings hitting the market early in the month, followed by a higher number of transactions in the second half of the month, so overall more sellers and buyers compared to April,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “It seems like this may carry over into June as well.”

There were 4.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of May 2025, near the long-term average of five months. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was relatively unchanged (-0.2%) from April to May 2025. The pause follows three straight month-over-month declines of closer to 1%. The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 3.5% compared to May 2024.

Bottom Line

The First-Time Homebuyers GST Rebate on newly built homes took effect for purchase agreements dated on or after May 27. This may bring some additional buyers into sales offices, but it’ll be a while before those projects break ground and show up in the housing starts statistics. In the resale market, May saw the first signs of optimism in home sales in six months, but sales remain at the low end of seasonal norms. While trade war uncertainty still looms, average and benchmark prices have fallen to about 17% below their early 2022 peaks. The opportunity may have been too good for some buyers to pass up.

New listings picked up about 3% from April, while inventory held steady at nearly five months. With this excess supply in the market, average sale prices ticked up only slightly in May but remain flat over the past year, while the benchmark price declined marginally.

Regional differences remained significant. Home sales reversed course in Quebec City, but the average selling price increased, reaching a new high. Despite stronger sales in Toronto and Vancouver, these cities remained deep in buyer’s market territory.

While one good month of home sales doesn’t make a trend, there may be signs of cautious optimism for the resale market for those buyers who remain little affected by the ongoing trade war. The combination of lower prices, more inventory and less economic uncertainty should continue to entice more homebuyers back into the market this summer. This would be more likely if the Bank of Canada cuts rates again, which could well happen in July if the inflation readings improve, especially for core inflation.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Labour Market Weakness Continued in May, Raising the Prospects of a Rate Cut at The Next BoC Meeting

Today’s Labour Force Survey for March was weaker than expected. Employment decreased by 33,000 (-0.2%) in March, the first decrease since January 2022. The decline in March followed little change in February and three consecutive months of growth in November, December and January, totalling 211,000 (+1.0%).

Today’s Labour Force Survey for May showed a marked adverse impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy. Employment held steady for the second consecutive month at a modest net job change of 8,800–below expectations.

Growth in full-time employment (+58,000; +0.3%) was offset by a decline in part-time work (-49,000; -1.3%). There has been virtually no employment growth since January, following substantial gains from October 2024 to January 2025 (+211,000; +1.0%).

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older—was unchanged at 60.8% in May, matching a recent low observed in October 2024. The employment rate had fallen for two consecutive months in March (-0.2 percentage points) and April 2025 (-0.1 percentage points).

The number of private sector employees rose by 61,000 (+0.4%) in May, the first increase since January. Public sector employment fell by 21,000 (-0.5%) in the month, following an increase in April that was partly attributable to the hiring of temporary workers for the federal election. Self-employment also fell (-30,000; -1.1%) in May, the first significant decrease since May 2023.

The unemployment rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 7.0% in May, the highest rate since September 2016 (excluding 2020 and 2021, during the pandemic). The uptick in May was the third consecutive monthly increase; since February, the unemployment rate has risen by 0.4 percentage points.

There were 1.6 million unemployed people in May, an increase of 13.8% (+191,000) from 12 months earlier. A smaller share of people who were unemployed in April transitioned into employment in May (22.6%), compared with one year earlier (24.0%) and compared with the pre-pandemic average for the same months in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (31.5%) (not seasonally adjusted). This indicates that people face greater difficulties finding work in the current labour market.

The average duration of unemployment has also been rising; unemployed people had spent an average of 21.8 weeks searching for work in May, up from 18.4 weeks in May 2024. Furthermore, nearly half (46.5%) of people unemployed in May 2025 had not worked in the previous 12 months or had never worked, up from 40.7% in May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

The layoff rate—representing the proportion of people who were employed in April but became unemployed in May as a result of a layoff—was 0.6%, unchanged from May 2024 (not seasonally adjusted).

Total hours worked were unchanged in May but were up 0.9% compared with 12 months earlier.

Average hourly wages among employees increased 3.4% (+$1.20 to $36.14) year-over-year in May, the same growth rate as in April (not seasonally adjusted).

Employment rose in wholesale and retail trade (+43,000; +1.5%) in May, driven by gains in wholesale trade. The increase partially offsets monthly declines in March and April 2025, totalling 55,000 (-1.8%).

In May, employment increased in information, culture and recreation (+19,000; +2.3%) and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+12,000; +0.8%). Employment has increased in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing since October 2024, with a net increase of 79,000 (+5.6%) over the period.

Meanwhile, public administration employment fell (-32,000; -2.5%), offsetting the increase in April that was related to temporary hiring for the federal election. Prior to these offsetting changes, there had been little change in public administration employment since July 2024.

Chart 5 Employment change by industry, May 2025

Employment also declined in May in transportation and warehousing (-16,000; -1.4%); accommodation and food services (-16,000; -1.4%), and business, building and other support services (-15,000; -2.1%).

Bottom Line

US nonfarm payroll data were released this morning, showing a still resilient economy with tariffs beginning to leave their mark. The US added 139,000 jobs in May, exceeding estimates, while the jobless rate remained at 4.2%. A decline in the labour force participation rate kept the lid on May’s US unemployment rate. But the number of unemployed rose for a fourth month, the longest such streak since 2009. Payrolls for the prior two months were revised downward, and wage gains outstripped inflation, helping to boost consumer spending.

A number of other labour market indicators show signs of increasing stress. Household employment dropped by a whopping 696k in May as the labour force shrank by 625k. This kept the unemployment rate relatively stable at 4.244%, but it is hardly a sign of labour market strength and resilience.

Manufacturing employment dropped by 8k, the sector’s worst performance since January. Construction employment growth also slowed to 4k from 7k in April, which is unusual during the Spring home-selling season. There were also stinging net job losses coming from temporary help firms, retail trade, and the Federal government. These sectors likely feel the combined strain from tariffs and DOGE-driven Federal spending cuts.

Nothing in the May employment report will push the Fed off the sidelines earlier than the markets expect. The steady unemployment rate and improvement in the three-month average of monthly job gains will keep the Fed firmly in the wait-and-see camp. With that said, cracks in the façade of labour market resilience are now starting to show, and the longer the tariff uncertainty and government spending cuts continue, the worse the labour market reports are bound to be. Signs of net job loss in manufacturing, temporary help, retail trade, and government are tell-tale signs of that damage.

On the Canadian side, tariffs have already had a substantial effect on the labour market. The jobless rate is at its highest since 2016, excluding the pandemic, as industries impacted by tariffs are laying off workers. The doubling of the tariff on steel and aluminum is especially deleterious. Trade-related sectors are struggling, while domestic-facing industries are partially offsetting the damage.

The May jobs report could have been worse, given that it was burdened by the loss of more than 30,000 election workers. Any increase is welcome, and the gains in private-sector and full-time jobs are encouraging. The glaring issue is that the manufacturing sector is under intense strain amid the deep trade uncertainty, and the overall job market continues to soften, highlighted by the grinding rise in the unemployment rate. In over two years, the jobless rate has risen by two percentage points, as we have gone from 2022 to 2023, when it was difficult to find workers, to today, when it is difficult to find work. While May’s mixed report doesn’t give a clear-cut signal to the BoC, the bigger trend of a rising jobless rate will keep them in easing mode through the year’s second half.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady for the Second Consecutive Meeting–But Two More Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year

As expected, the Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75% at today’s meeting, the second consecutive rate hold since the Bank cut overnight rates seven times in the past year. The governing council noted that the unpredictability of the magnitude and duration of tariffs posed downside risks to growth and lifted inflation expectations, warranting caution regarding the continuation of monetary easing.

The gap between the 2.75% overnight policy rate in Canada and the 4.25-4.50% policy rate in the US is historically wide. Another cause of uncertainty is the fiscal response to today’s economic challenges. If the Big Beautiful Bill, now under consideration in the Senate, survives, the US is slated to run unprecedented budget deficits. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would add roughly US$4 trillion to the already burgeoning federal government’s red ink. This has caused a year-to-date rise in longer-term bond yields, steepening the yield curve.

Uncertainty remains high, and the US President just doubled the tariff on steel and aluminum to 50%, which could halt Canadian metals exports to the US. Last week’s release of the first quarter GDP report at 2.2% annualized growth was stronger than expected as exports and inventories surged before the tariffs. Final domestic demand in Canada was flat.  More recent data showed considerable weakness, especially in labour and housing markets. Consumer spending has also slowed sharply.

In today’s press conference opening comments, Governor Macklem said, “The extreme financial turmoil we saw in April has moderated, and stock markets have recovered their losses. However, the outcomes of the trade negotiations are highly uncertain. Tariffs are well above their levels at the beginning of 2025, and new trade actions are still being threatened. The recent further increases in US tariffs on steel and aluminum underline the unpredictability of US trade policy.”

“So far, the US economy has proven resilient. Imports were strong as businesses tried to get ahead of tariffs, and that pulled down first-quarter US GDP. But domestic demand remained relatively strong. Early indicators for the second quarter suggest a rebound in growth as imports fall back and domestic demand continues to expand.

The flip side of the strength in US imports was a surge in Canadian exports. This boosted first-quarter GDP growth in Canada, which came in at 2.2%, slightly stronger than the Bank had forecast.

The labour market has weakened, with job losses concentrated in trade-intensive sectors. The unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in April. So far, employment has held up across sectors less exposed to trade. However, businesses generally tell the central bank they plan to scale back hiring.

The pull forward in exports and inventory accumulation in the first quarter borrows economic strength from the future, so the second quarter is expected to be much weaker. Canadian families and businesses’ spending has shown some resilience in the face of US tariffs and heightened uncertainty. But they will likely remain cautious, suggesting domestic spending will remain subdued.

Inflation excluding taxes was 2.3% in April, slightly more substantial than the Bank had expected and up from 2.1% in March. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation and other measures of underlying inflation moved up in April. There is some unusual volatility in inflation, but these measures suggest underlying inflation could be firmer than we thought. Higher core inflation can be partly attributed to higher goods prices, including food, and may reflect the effects of trade disruption. Many businesses report higher costs for finding alternative suppliers and developing new markets. The Bank will be closely watching measures of underlying inflation to gauge how inflationary pressures are evolving.

The Bank is also monitoring inflation expectations closely. In April, we reported that consumers and businesses expected prices to rise due to tariffs, while longer-term inflation expectations remained well anchored. Recent surveys continue to show consumers bracing for higher prices, and many businesses say they intend to pass on tariff costs.

Governing Council will continue to assess the timing and strength of the downward pressure on inflation from a weaker economy and the upward pressure on inflation from higher costs.

At this decision, there was a consensus to hold the policy unchanged as we gain more information. The BoC also discussed the path ahead for the policy interest rate. Here, there was more diversity of views. On balance, members thought there could be a need for a reduction in the policy rate if the economy weakens in the face of continued US tariffs and uncertainty, and cost pressures on inflation are contained.

Bottom Line 

We expect the Canadian economy to post a small negative reading (-0.5%) in both Q2 and Q3, bringing growth for the year to 1.2%, just one tick above the recently released OECD forecast for Canada. The next Governing Council decision date is July 30, which will give the  Bank time to assess the underlying momentum in inflation and the dampening effect of tariffs on economic activity.

If inflation slows over the next couple of months—we get two CPI releases and two jobs reports before the next meeting—and the economy slows in Q2 and Q3 as widely expected, the Bank will likely cut rates two more times this year, bringing the overnight rate down to 2.25%.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca