This week I was invited to attend an exclusive session with SAGEN (formerly Genworth Canada) by one of my top Lenders, First National. The data they shared regarding the British Columbia housing market is eye-opening.

As we move into March 2026, the British Columbia real estate landscape is navigating a unique “economic crossroads.” To help you and your clients make sense of the current climate, I’ve distilled the most recent data from Sagen into five key pillars.

This is the “essential math” currently driving the BC housing market.

1. Economic Resilience Through Diversification

While trade tariffs and shifting U.S. relations are often in the headlines, BC’s economy has shown remarkable adaptability. Total exports now account for roughly 13% of Provincial GDP, but the destination of those goods has shifted. In just three years, reliance on U.S. exports dipped from 57.5% to 51.7%, while trade with Mainland China has grown to nearly 20%. This diversification serves as a vital buffer, providing the economic stability required to keep the housing market grounded.

2. The 30-Year Amortization “Bridge”

The 30-year amortization is no longer just an “option”—it has become the primary bridge for the BC middle class. Last year, 60% of all BC mortgage applications opted for a 30-year term. Most tellingly, 51% of those applicants would not have qualified for their home under a traditional 25-year schedule. This flexibility is the single most important tool currently keeping homeownership attainable for local families.

3. The High-Quality BC Borrower

Despite higher carrying costs, the BC borrower remains financially disciplined. The average Gross Debt Service (GDS) ratio sits at a healthy 29%, well within safety margins. Furthermore, our “New to Canada” segment—led by Surrey with 16% of total applications—is showing incredible strength, with 87% of these borrowers boasting credit scores over 700.

4. The $1.19M Reality

In British Columbia, the “million-dollar home” is no longer a luxury niche; it is the new benchmark for family housing. BC now accounts for 21% of all $1M+ mortgage applications in Canada, with the average purchase price in this segment hitting $1,190,000. To manage the monthly carry, 62% of these buyers are utilizing 30-year amortizations to balance their cash flow.

5. The Victoria & Urban Factor

The data highlights a significant “urban fortress” effect. In downtown Vancouver, for example, 100% of insured loans remain urban, supported by an average household income of $187,283. Meanwhile, in regions like Victoria and Surrey, we are seeing a “Bank of Mom and Dad” effect, with 23% of borrowers province-wide utilizing gifted down payments to secure their piece of the market.

The Bottom Line

We have officially shifted into a Buyer’s Market in many regions as inventory grows, yet prices remain stable over the long term. While we continue to watch federal immigration adjustments and trade tariffs, the combination of diversified income and high credit quality suggests a very solid foundation for the year ahead.

A mortgage is one of the largest financial commitments most people will make. Yet many borrowers focus only on interest rates instead of creating a long-term mortgage strategy. This article explains why homeowners and buyers across British Columbia work with Kimberly Coutts — the Mortgage Maven — when they want a thoughtful mortgage strategy that supports their financial goals.

1. Strategy Before the Mortgage Application

Many lenders focus only on getting a mortgage approved. Kimberly begins with a strategy-focused conversation to understand the client’s financial goals, lifestyle, and long-term plans. This approach ensures the mortgage is structured to support future plans rather than simply securing financing.

2. A Detailed Discovery Call to Understand Your Goals

Every strategy begins with a complimentary 30-minute discovery call. During this conversation, Kimberly reviews the client’s financial situation, risk tolerance, and comfort level with monthly payments. She also explains different mortgage structures and how they may affect the client over time.

3. Personalized Mortgage Solutions

No two clients have the same financial goals. Kimberly creates custom mortgage solutions that reflect each client’s income structure, long-term plans, and risk tolerance. This personalized approach allows borrowers to choose a mortgage that fits their life rather than adapting their life to a mortgage.

4. Guidance Beyond Interest Rates

Many borrowers focus only on finding the lowest interest rate. Kimberly believes the right mortgage product matters just as much as the rate itself. By analyzing amortization options, mortgage terms, and repayment strategies, she helps clients reduce their overall interest costs over time.

5. Access to a Wide Range of Lenders

A bank can only offer its own mortgage products. As a mortgage broker, Kimberly works with banks, mortgage finance companies, and alternative lenders. This wide network allows her to match clients with mortgage products that best support their financial strategy.

6. Clear Education Throughout the Process

Mortgage decisions often involve complex financial concepts. Kimberly focuses on explaining each option clearly so clients understand how different mortgage structures will affect their finances today and in the future.

7. Long-Term Mortgage Planning

A mortgage strategy should evolve as life changes. Kimberly maintains long-term relationships with her clients and provides annual mortgage checkups to ensure their mortgage continues to align with their financial goals and circumstances.

8. Proven Experience and Trusted Guidance

With more than 10 years of experience and over $100 million in funded mortgages, Kimberly has helped more than 225 families navigate important mortgage decisions. Her reputation for being professional, thorough, and efficient is reflected in 135 five-star Google reviews.

For buyers and homeowners who want more than just a mortgage approval, the right strategy makes all the difference. Kimberly Coutts — the Mortgage Maven — provides the expertise, planning, and personalized guidance needed to build a mortgage strategy that supports long-term financial success.

The Canadian Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4, Owing to a Decline in Business Inventories

Statistics Canada reported this morning that the Canadian economy contracted by 0.6% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, a significant reversal from the 2.4% expansion posted in Q3. The weaker growth rate reflected a steep decline in business inventories, which was partially offset by increases in household spending, exports, and government capital spending.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg were expecting a 0.2% annualized decline over the last three months of 2025, while the Bank of Canada projected flat growth.

As US tariffs weighed on Canadian exports for much of the year, real GDP increased by 1.7% in 2025, marking the slowest annual growth since the economy contracted in 2020 owing to the COVID pandemic. Lower exports, particularly to the United States, were the main contributor to the slower rise in GDP in 2025.

A preliminary estimate suggests real GDP remained unchanged in January, after increasing by 0.2% in December, slightly stronger than economists’ estimate of 0.1%.

Exports rose 1.5% in the fourth quarter, after increasing 0.9% in the third quarter. The growth in the fourth quarter was led by higher exports of unwrought gold and of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys. Despite the increases in the latter half of the year, exports fell 1.7% in 2025, as shipments to the United States did not fully recover following the drop in the second quarter.

Imports edged up 0.3% in the fourth quarter, as higher imports of computers, clothing and footwear, and metal ores were largely offset by lower imports of pharmaceutical and medicinal products. For the year, imports were down 0.4% in 2025, driven by the 2.9% decline in the third quarter.

The better-than-expected Q3 gain will not be sustained in Q4, as Statistics Canada’s advance estimate for October showed industrial gross domestic product fell at a -0.3% monthly pace.

The current overnight policy rate of 2.25% remains stimulative, but until the likely outcome of trade negotiations with the US is resolved, Canada’s economy will be on shaky ground. It is unclear whether the Canada-US-Mexico free trade agreement will be extended beyond this year. If not, Canada will be in for a significant trade policy redo as it seeks replacement markets for its exports.

Household spending rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter after declining 0.2% in the third quarter. Higher expenditures on rent and financial services in the fourth quarter were partially offset by lower spending on new passenger vehicles and alcoholic beverages, as overall expenditures on goods declined for a second consecutive quarter.

On an annual basis, household final consumption expenditure was up 2.3% in 2025, keeping pace with the 2.2% growth in each of the previous two years. The rise in 2025 was led by increased household spending on financial services and rent.

Total capital investment rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, driven by increased government investment in weapons systems. In contrast, business capital investment edged down 0.1% in the fourth quarter, as both residential and non-residential investment decreased. These declines were moderated by increased business investment in machinery and equipment, primarily computers (+19.6%) and intellectual property products, namely software (+0.7%).

Annually, total capital investment increased 1.4% in 2025, led by higher government investment in weapons systems (+45.9%) and engineering structures (+6.7%). Business investment rose 0.3% in 2025, as higher residential construction (+1.0%) and non-residential construction (+1.6%) were largely offset by weaker investment in machinery and equipment (-3.5%). The year 2025 was the third consecutive year in which government capital investment contributed more to GDP growth than business capital expenditures.

Business residential investment declined in the fourth quarter, led by decreased ownership transfer costs (-2.4%), a measure of resale market activity, and lower renovations (-1.3%). New construction (-0.5%) also declined in the fourth quarter due to lower work put in place for single- and apartment units.

Higher business residential investment in 2025 represented the first annual increase since 2021, as increased new construction (+1.0%) and renovations (+2.7%) more than offset the decline in ownership transfer costs (-3.4%).

Bottom Line

While weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP figures might normally trigger an easing move by the Bank of Canada, the Governing Council has made it very clear that it remains concerned about inflation. Tariff uncertainty is especially high now that the Supreme Court has found the Trump administration misused the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping, open-ended tariffs — striking down the legal foundation for a central pillar of the administration’s trade strategy.

The decision removes the fastest way to impose broad country-level duties, but it does not end the tariff debate. Other statutory authorities remain in play, and businesses and trading partners are left to assess what comes next.

The ruling also lands amid sustained political pressure around affordability, which may shape how aggressively trade tools are redeployed. Even if tariff rates decline, businesses must now assess whether alternative authorities will be used to reimpose them. For the real economy, restoring stability may matter as much as reducing tariffs themselves.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Housing Activity Fell Again in January–Depressed by Record Winter Storm 

Today’s release of January housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the housing market frozen solid by the record winter storms. Both home sales and prices continued their downward trend, but have yet to attract the beleaguered first-time homebuyer.

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell 5.8% on a month-over-month basis in January 2026.

“The monthly decline in national home sales was driven primarily by less activity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario, suggesting that the story was probably more about a historic winter storm than a downshift in demand,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Notwithstanding the chilly start to the year, we continue to expect 2026 will ultimately be defined by pent-up demand from first-time buyers finally seeing a chance to enter the market.”

New Listings

Similar to what happened in January 2025, new supply increased month over month in January 2026, rising 7.3% as sellers appeared eager to start the year.

The burst of new supply was driven by about two-thirds of local markets, and led by Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Greater Vancouver, and Victoria. Meanwhile, Central and Southwestern Ontario were far less prominent and, in many cases, recorded declines. This reinforces the view that winter weather was a primary factor in January in those regions, as it appears to have suppressed both demand and supply.

With a rare combination of a sizeable increase in new listings and a sharp slowdown in sales in January, the national sales-to-new listings ratio dropped to 45% compared to 51.3% at the end of 2025. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new-listings ratio is 54.8%, with readings generally between 45% and 65%, consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 140,680 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of January 2026, up 4.5% from a year earlier but 11.4% below the long-term average for that time of year.

There were 4.9 months of inventory nationally at the end of January 2026, up from 4.6 months at the end of December. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is five months of inventory. Based on one standard deviation above and below that long-term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

In line with more supply and less demand in January 2026, the National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 0.9% on a month-over-month basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 4.9% compared to January 2025.

Regionally, prices remain down year over year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, offsetting gains in other provinces. An analysis by city shows the largest year-over-year declines dip into double digits in Hamilton-Burlington and Oakville-Milton, contrasted with double-digit gains in Sudbury, Quebec City, and St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Home Prices

Regionally, prices remain down year over year in British Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario, offsetting gains in other provinces. An analysis by city shows the largest year-over-year declines dip into double digits in Hamilton-Burlington and Oakville-Milton, contrasted with double-digit gains in Sudbury, Quebec City, and St. John’s, Newfoundland.

Bottom Line

Today’s data end a year that saw house prices drift lower despite falling interest rates, as a simmering trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner caused higher unemployment and considerable job uncertainty. Although U.S. tariffs affect only a limited volume of Canadian goods, and the economy hasn’t tipped into a recession, the unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s trade policy has stoked economic insecurity.

In some regions, the price decline has now wiped out a sizable share of the gains homeowners saw during the torrid Covid market from 2020 to 2022, when overnight interest rates were reduced to a record low of 25 basis points. Back then, ultralow interest rates drove home prices to surge, particularly in smaller cities where remote workers fled to take advantage of a lower cost of living.

There is considerable pent-up demand among potential first-time buyers who will likely dip their toes in the market once winter passes. This year, we also see a record volume of refis and renewals, which will increase monthly mortgage payments and dampen household purchasing power. Affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers, but mortgage rates and prices are considerably below year-ago levels. A reawakening of housing activity is likely as the spring market approaches.

With inflation well-behaved, the Bank of Canada has the flexibility to cut the overnight rate further if the economy falters.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

CPI Inflation in Canada Fell A Tick to 2.3% Y/Y in January on Gasoline Price Decline

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% on a year-over-year basis in January, following a 2.4% increase in December.

The gasoline price index was the largest contributor to the deceleration in headline inflation, with a larger decline in January than in December. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.0% in January, matching the December increase.

Indexes with year-over-year movements impacted by the temporary GST/HST break in January 2025 continued to put upward pressure on the year-over-year all-items increase in January 2026. Among the affected indexes, the CPI remained most affected by the acceleration in prices for restaurant meals, and to a lesser extent, by prices for alcoholic beverages, toys, and children’s clothing.

The core inflation measures decelerated further in January, with the BoC’s two favourite measures easing to their lowest levels in a year (see chart below).

Prices at the pump fell 16.7% year over year in January, after a 13.8% drop in December. The larger year-over-year decline was mainly due to a base-year effect. The index rose 0.5% month over month in January 2026, compared with a 4.0% increase in January 2025, when crude oil prices rose. Additionally, the partial reintroduction of the provincial gas tax in Manitoba in January 2025 is no longer impacting the 12-month movement.

For food purchased from restaurants, prices were higher in January 2026 (+12.3%) than in January 2025, when prices were lower due to the GST/HST break.

Similarly, prices rose on a year-over-year basis for other previously tax-exempt goods in January 2026, including alcoholic beverages purchased from stores (+7.9%), alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments (+9.0%), toys, games (excluding video games) and hobby supplies (+8.7%) and children’s clothing (+6.3%).

Year over year, prices for cellular services decelerated in January (+4.9%) compared with December (+14.6%), reflecting a base-year effect after six consecutive months of upward pressure. On a month-over-month basis, prices declined in January 2026 (-0.8%) after increasing in January 2025 (+8.3%).

Prices for food purchased from stores rose 4.8% year over year in January, following a 5.0% increase in December. The slower price growth was mainly driven by a decline in fresh fruit prices (-3.1%) in January, after a 4.5% increase in December. Amid generally strong or stable harvests in producer regions, the largest contributors to downward pressure on prices were berries, oranges and melons.

Since early 2024, growth in shelter costs has slowed year over year. In January 2026, prices continued to decelerate, rising 1.7%. This is the first time in nearly five years that year-over-year shelter price growth has fallen below 2.0%. Slower growth in rents and mortgage interest costs drove the deceleration.

Rent prices rose at a slower pace year over year in January (+4.3%) than in December (+4.9%). Rent prices decelerated the most in Prince Edward Island (+0.2%) and Saskatchewan (+1.8%).

The mortgage interest cost index rose 1.2% year over year in January, following a 1.7% increase in December. This index has been decelerating since September 2023.

In January, prices rose at a slower pace in nine provinces than in December. Year-over-year price growth accelerated in British Columbia due to a base-year effect, as hotel prices declined on a monthly basis in January 2025 after increasing in December 2024, coinciding with a series of high-profile concerts in Vancouver.

Bottom Line

Although inflation pressures are dissipating, this report alone will not trigger a Bank of Canada rate cut when the Bank meets again on March 18. It is unlikely to move the Bank of Canada from the sidelines as it continues to evaluate how US tariffs are affecting the economy. The data suggest that Americans are paying the bulk of the tariffs.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures of core inflation decelerated, with the median gauge edging down to 2.5% from 2.6%, and trim falling to 2.4% from 2.7%.

What the Canadian economy needs is greater clarity on the future of the Canada-Mexico-United States (CUSMA) trade agreement. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.

The central bank kept its policy rate at 2.25% last month for the second consecutive meeting and has signalled an aversion to juicing demand at this time. In a speech earlier this month, Governor Tiff Macklem warned that cutting interest rates amid a supply-side shock could stoke inflation.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Canadian Jobs Growth Slowed Markedly in January as the Unemployment Rate Fell Sharply to 6.5%

Today’s Canadian Labour Force Survey for January was weaker than expected. Employment declined by 24,800 (-0.1%), and the employment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 60.8%. This followed only a small gain in December and was the first decline in the employment rate since August 2025.

In January, a decrease in part-time employment (-70,000; -1.8%) was partly offset by a gain in full-time work (+45,000; +0.3%). Compared with 12 months earlier, overall employment was up by 134,000 (+0.6%), driven by gains in full-time work (+149,000; +0.9%).

The number of private sector employees fell by 52,000 (-0.4%) in January, partly offsetting a net increase of 128,000 (+0.9%) in the last three months of 2025. There was little change in the number of public sector employees (+13,000; +0.3%) and self-employed workers (+14,000; +0.5%) in January.

The jobless rate fell by 0,3 percentage points to 6.5% in January, driven by a decline in the number of people searching for work. The unemployment rate in January was the lowest since September 2024, down 0.6 percentage points from the recent high of 7.1% recorded in August and September 2025.

The labour force participation rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who were employed or looking for work—decreased 0.4 percentage points to 65.0% in January, following an increase of 0.2 percentage points in December. The decline in January was concentrated in Ontario, the hub of the auto sector, manufacturing generally, and steel production. Recent data also show that the number of entry-level positions has fallen sharply, likely due to artificial intelligence replacing these positions.

The unemployment rate fell across most major demographic groups in January, largely reflecting declines in the number of job searchers.

Unemployment rate by age group, January 2026

Manufacturing jobs were hard hit by the tariffs and trade uncertainty. 

The number of people working in manufacturing fell by 28,000 (-1.5%) in January, bringing employment down to levels last observed in August 2025. The decline in January was concentrated in Ontario. On a year-over-year basis, overall employment in manufacturing was down 51,000 (-2.7%).

Employment change by industry, January 2026

There were also fewer workers in educational services (-24,000; -1.5%) and public administration (-10,000; -0.8%) in January. Employment in both industries was little changed year over year.

On the other hand, employment increased in information, culture and recreation (+17,000; +2.0%) in January, continuing an upward trend that began in September 2025. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry was up 30,000 (+3.6%) in January.

Employment also rose in business, building and other support services (+14,000; +2.1%) in January, the first increase since October 2024. Employment in this industry had previously followed a downward trend through most of 2025. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment in business, building and other support services was down 38,000 (-5.3%) in January.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has reiterated that its primary mandate is price stability, effectively leaving the task of closing the output gap to fiscal authorities. Fiscal support delivered through large capital-spending projects will be implemented too slowly to materially offset near-term weakness in activity. If layoffs persist at their recent pace and the United States were to withdraw from the Canada‑US‑Mexico Agreement, the case for an additional round of monetary easing would strengthen markedly.

Absent that downside scenario, the more plausible path is a slow and limited normalization of policy. Market pricing currently anticipates that the next move by the Bank of Canada will be to raise the overnight policy rate, but this is unlikely until 2027. If labour force weakness and higher mortgage costs associated with this year’s huge volume of mortgage renewals, in combination with AI-induced job losses, weaken the economy, the Bank of Canada might be willing to cut the overnight policy rate later this year. Uncertainty has already markedly weakened the housing market, despite the reduction in home prices and mortgage rates over the past year.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

I just returned from a mortgage conference with some of the best in the industry, and while most people were talking about whether we’d see another rate reduction by the Bank of Canada or stay the course (including me), we had experts share a “thought experiment” that could change the game for an entire generation: The 50-year amortization.

I know what you’re thinking: “That’s way too much interest!” But let’s look at the reality of the Canadian market in 2026.

The Barrier to Entry is a Wall The average first-time homebuyer is now 40 years old. In our major cities, nearly 7 out of 10 buyers require a “gift” from their parents to even qualify—often to the tune of $100k to $300k. homeownership is becoming a “members only” club for those with generational wealth.

Rent is 100% Interest The biggest objection to a 50-year mortgage is the interest cost over time. But we rarely apply that same logic to the rental market. If you rent for 50 years, you have paid 100% interest and own 0% of the asset.

A 50-year mortgage isn’t a life sentence; it’s an on-ramp. It provides the lowest possible monthly payment during the years when life is most expensive—when you’re starting a career or raising a young family.

The Forced Savings Advantage We are living in a “K-shaped” economy. Homeowners are statistically 6 to 7 times wealthier than renters because a mortgage is a forced savings vehicle.

• Equity as a Safety Net: Homeowners can tap into equity to consolidate high-interest debt. Renters are stuck with high-cost credit cards and no leverage.
• Tax Efficiency: The principal residence exemption remains the best tax-free wealth builder in Canada.

A New Tool for a New Reality Back in the 80s, our parents dealt with 18% interest rates, but their homes cost 3x their annual salary. Today, homes are 10x our salary. The old rules don’t work for the new reality.

A 50-year amortization would allow young professionals to get into the market at 25 instead of 45. They could make lump-sum payments as their income grows, increase their frequency, or re-amortize at renewal.

The goal isn’t to stay in debt forever—it’s to get in the door. Because you can’t build a legacy on a rental receipt.

What’s your take? Is it time we stop letting “optics” get in the way of access? I’d love to hear your thoughts.

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate Steady

Today, the Bank of Canada once again held the policy rate steady at 2.25%. This is the bottom of the Bank’s estimate of the neutral overnight rate, where monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. With inflation hovering just above 2% and core inflation falling to 2.5%, the Governing Council sees the current overnight rate as appropriate, “conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook published today. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025, and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply.”

According to the press release, “Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up, and business investment gradually strengthens, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement.”

In the United States, economic growth is supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The Fed stood pat today, but is expected to cut rates three times in the second half of this year. The US Federal Reserve is likely to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75% as President Trump lobbies Chair Jay Powell for more dramatic rate cuts.

Data released yesterday showed that US consumer confidence plummeted in January to the lowest level in 12 years on more pessimistic views from Americans worried about the nation’s economy, inflation and a weakening labour market.

The Conference Board gauge decreased to 84.5 from an upwardly revised 94.2 last month, data released Tuesday showed. The figure was the lowest since May 2014 and fell short of all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has shown its willingness to bolster the Canadian economy amid unprecedented trade uncertainty. At the same time, Canada is working hard to establish alternative trade partners. Even the vast Chinese market cannot replace the US in terms of proximity and cost-effectiveness, given the high transport costs. China has stepped up its purchases of Canadian oil to record levels. There is no single market the size of the US market to replace exports of steel and aluminum.

“Employment weakened in the first half of 2025 as sectors hit hard by U.S. tariffs cut production and jobs,” Macklem said. “In recent months, overall employment has risen, led by hiring in services like health care, and slowing population growth is reducing the number of new entrants into the labour market.”

US tariffs have had a significant negative impact on Canadian exports. While the push for trade diversification is welcome, export growth is expected to be modest over the next two years.

“This restructuring, including more diversified trade and a more integrated internal market, will support some recovery in our productive capacity,” Macklem said. “But it will take some time.”

As outlined in its Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the top risk to the outlook is the CUSMA review. The bank highlights that Canada currently has an effective US tariff rate of 5.8%, thanks to the exemptions under the North American trade pact. It warned that an unfavourable outcome to negotiations could make Canadian exports less competitive.

“Faced with weaker demand, exporters would reduce production, investment and hiring,” the report said. “This would spill over into the broader economy, weighing on sectors such as services and putting Canadian GDP on a lower path.”

“Government spending on infrastructure is projected to rise, mainly reflecting commitments in provincial budgets,” the report said. “Additional federal capital transfers will also bolster infrastructure investment.”

In this environment, market-driven interest rates have risen. The 5-year bond yield is once again attempting to break through 3%. The 2-year bond at 2.67% is well above the overnight rate, and the Canadian dollar is rising. Lenders have recently increased fixed mortgage rates, which will be more popular if people generally expect rates to rise.

The key to the outlook is the continuation of CUSMA. We will likely suffer several more months of uncertainty before we know the fate of the trade agreement. In the meantime, PM Carney will continue to encourage trade deals in non-US countries

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

CPI Inflation in Canada Rose to 2.4% in December

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in December, following a 2.2% increase in the prior two months.

The year-over-year acceleration in the all-items CPI was driven by the temporary Goods and Services Tax (GST)/Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) break that began on December 14, 2024. This resulted in monthly declines for the exempt goods and services, which have now fallen out of the year-over-year movement, putting upward pressure on headline CPI growth.

The headline CPI accelerated, but the year-over-year decline in gasoline prices in December moderated it. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 3.0% in December, following a 2.6% increase in November.

The CPI fell 0.2% month over month in December. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3%.

Various indexes were affected by the GST/HST exemption in December 2024, including restaurant food, alcoholic beverages, toys, games and hobby supplies, children’s clothing and some grocery items, such as potato chips and confectionery.

Year over year, higher restaurant prices were the largest contributor to faster all-items CPI growth in December 2025. Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 8.5% in December, up from 3.3% in November. Prices for alcoholic beverages served in licensed establishments (+6.5%) and purchased from stores (+5.6%) also rose faster in December.

Prices for toys, games (excluding video games) and hobby supplies rose 7.5% in December, after a 0.5% decline in November. Additionally, prices for children’s clothing accelerated in December (+4.8%) compared with November (+2.4%).

Year-over-year price growth also picked up for potato chips and other snack products (+7.9%) and confectionery (+14.2%).

Despite being unchanged month over month, prices for food purchased from stores rose 5.0% year over year in December. Coffee (+30.8%) and fresh or frozen beef (+16.8%) remained the largest contributors to the increase.

The main core inflation measures decelerated sharply in December, with the BoC’s two measures both easing to their lowest level in a year.

Bottom Line

This report confirms the Bank’s hold on the policy rate. Aside from food prices, inflation seems to be dissipating. The overall economy is in better-than-expected shape, as upward revisions to GDP since 2022 have been largely driven by stronger-than-expected productivity growth, a long-standing concern for the Canadian economy.

The backdrop of stronger growth and lower inflation will keep the Bank of Canada on hold for most of 2026, as the next rate move is likely to be a hike, but not until 2027 unless the US withdraws from CUSMA. In the meantime, the biggest loser in the past year has been the housing market.

The most recent Canadian Real Estate Association data suggests particularly weak activity in Ontario, the region hardest hit by the tariff uncertainty. A cautious Bank of Canada will monitor the effect of rapidly rising food prices on inflation expectations. With any luck at all, core inflation will continue to decelerate, keeping the Bank on the sidelines for much of this year.

Hopefully, greater clarity on the Canada-Mexico-US agreement will be forthcoming. Reduced uncertainty is the key ingredient required for a rebound in housing activity, particularly in the regions of Ontario and Quebec hardest hit by the tariffs.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Housing Activity Fell in December, Rounding Out A Disappointing Year

Today’s release of December housing data by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) showed the market ended 2025 with declining sales and prices due to ongoing economic uncertainty.

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems declined 2.7% m/m in December. On an annual basis, transactions totalled 470,314 units last year, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, despite a series of Bank of Canada rate cuts.

“There doesn’t appear to have been much rhyme or reason to the month-over-month decline in home sales in December, which was simply the result of coincident but seemingly unrelated slowdowns in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “For that reason, it would be prudent for market observers to resist the temptation to trace a line from the end of 2025 into 2026. Rather, we continue to expect sales to move higher again as we get closer to the spring, rejoining the upward trend that was observed throughout the spring, summer, and early fall of 2025.”

New Listings

New supply declined by 2% on a month-over-month basis in December, marking a fourth straight monthly drop. Combined with a slightly larger decrease in sales activity in December, the sales-to-new-listings ratio eased to 52.3% from 52.7% in November. This remains close to the long-term average national sales-to-new listings ratio of 54.9%. Readings roughly between 45% and 65% are generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

There were 133,495 properties listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of December 2025, up 7.4% from a year earlier but 9.9% below the long-term average for that time of year. Inventories have been falling since May 2025 owing to the mid-year rally in demand, meaning active listings could be back posting year-over-year declines around the time this year’s spring market gets going.

“While we remain in the quiet time of year for a little while longer, the spring market is now just around the corner, and it is expected to benefit from four years of pent-up demand, and interest rates that at this point are about as good as they are going to get,” said Valérie Paquin, CREA Chair. “Barring any further major uncertainty-causing events, that means we should see a more active market this year.”

There were 4.5 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of December 2025, up slightly from 4.4 months, which had been the measure since August. The long-term average for this measure of market balance is 5 months of inventory. Based on the measure of one standard deviation above and below that long -term average, a seller’s market would be below 3.6 months, and a buyer’s market would be above 6.4 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS ® Home Price Index (HPI) fell by 0.3% between November and December 2025. It was similar to the dip recorded in November and could reflect some sellers making price concessions to sell properties before the end of the year. Most of the overall price softening in December came from markets in Ontario’s Greater Golden Horseshoe region, which was hit hard by US tariffs.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI was down 4% from December 2024. Under the surface, year-over-year declines are larger for condo apartments and townhomes, and smaller for one- and two-storey detached homes.

Bottom Line

Today’s data end a year that saw house prices drift lower despite falling interest rates, as a simmering trade war with Canada’s largest trading partner caused higher unemployment and considerable job uncertainty. Though US tariffs apply to a limited volume of Canadian goods, and the economy didn’t tip into a recession, the unpredictability of President Donald Trump’s trade policy has stoked a sense of economic insecurity.

In some regions, the price decline has now wiped out a sizable proportion of the gains homeowners saw during the torrid Covid market from 2020 to 2022, when overnight interest rates were reduced to a record-low 25 basis points. Back then, ultralow interest rates caused home prices to surge, particularly in smaller cities to which remote workers fled to take advantage of a lower cost of living.

Vancouver and Toronto remain by far the most expensive large cities. The benchmark price in Greater Vancouver was C$1.14 million in December. In the Toronto region, it was C$962,300 – down about 6% from a year earlier.

With many regional markets soft, sellers are now pulling back. New listings dropped 2% in December from the previous month, the fourth straight monthly decline. But the total number of homes on the market last month was still 7.4% higher than the previous year. That’s the equivalent of about 4.5 months of inventory.

We concur with the view that there is considerable pent-up demand among potential first-time buyers who will likely dip their toe in the market once winter passes. This year, we also see a record volume of refinances and renewals, which will increase monthly mortgage payments and dampen household purchasing power.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca