October Inflation Rose to 2.0% As Gasoline Price Declines Were More Muted

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year-over-year in October, up from a 1.6% increase in September. Gasoline prices fell to a lesser extent in October (-4.0%) compared with September (-10.7%). The all-items CPI, excluding gasoline, rose 2.2% in October, the same growth rate as in August and September.

The smaller decline is partly attributed to a base-year effect, as prices fell 6.4% month over month in October 2023, stemming from lower refining margins and weaker global oil consumption.

On a monthly basis, prices for gasoline were up 0.7% in October, following a 7.1% decline in September.

Slower rise in shelter prices

Shelter price growth continued to ease in October, rising 4.8% year over year, compared with a 5.0% increase in September. Slower price growth in the mortgage interest cost index in October (+14.7%) compared with September (+16.7%) applied downward pressure on the shelter component. Mortgage interest costs have been decelerating year-over-year since September 2023, following a peak in August 2023 (+30.9%).

Similarly, rent prices grew at a slower pace in October, increasing 7.3% on a year-over-year basis, following an 8.2% gain in September. Nova Scotia (+5.2%) and Manitoba (+6.5%) decelerated the most. Although slowing, rent prices continue to increase and remain elevated. Compared with October 2021, rent prices increased 21.6%.

The central bank’s two preferred core inflation measures also quickened, averaging 2.55% yearly pace, faster than expectations and up from 2.35% a month earlier. According to Bloomberg calculations, a three-month moving average of those measures rose to an annualized pace of 2.8% from 2.1% in September.

After the release, overnight swaps traders trimmed their bets for a second consecutive large rate cut to about one in three, from a little less than a coin flip previously.

Bottom Line

The first acceleration of headline inflation in five months may bolster a case for the Bank of Canada to reduce borrowing costs gradually. After officials stepped up the pace of easing in October with a half-point cut, the next and this year’s final rate decision is on Dec. 11.

Still, Tuesday’s inflation print didn’t eliminate bets for another jumbo rate cut. That’s because the central bank had already expected a bump along the road, with consumer prices hovering around 2%, as policymakers keep cutting rates to boost economic growth.

When Governor Tiff Macklem and his officials delivered their outsize rate cut last month, they said they wanted to see a pickup in growth and demand. Preliminary industry-based data point to 1% annualized GDP growth in the third quarter, below the central bank’s 1.5% estimate. Final expenditure-based gross domestic product data is due at the end of this month.

The November employment report, released on December 6, is another critical data point for the central bank. The unemployment rate has been steady at 6.5% for the past two months. A meaningful rise in the jobless rate could encourage the Governing Council to go another 50 bps lower at their next meeting. That and GDP figures (released on November 29) will be watched closely to game the Bank of Canada’s next move. A 25 bps cut in the overnight policy rate is in the bag. A 50-bps cut is less likely.

Either way, the overnight policy rate, now at 3.75%, will be cut to roughly 2.5% by the middle of next year. This will continue to spur housing activity and could augur for a robust spring housing season.

Weaker-Than-Expected October Jobs Report Keeps Jumbo Rate Cut In-Play in December

Statistics Canada released October employment data today. The data showed a marked slowdown in job growth, underscoring ongoing labour-market softness that triggered a jumbo rate cut last month. Statistics Canada said the country added 14,500 positions in October, which missed the median expectation of a 27,200 rise in a Bloomberg survey of economists. It’s the smallest employment gain this year and far below the average monthly pace of about 40,000 positions. The jobless rate held steady at 6.5%, beating 6.6% forecasts.

Friday’s report showed an economy still creating jobs with room to churn out more. Bank of Canada policymakers cited the weakening in the labour market to ramp up the pace of reducing borrowing costs last month. Some market participants see a possibility of another 50 bps overnight policy rate cut at this year’s final decision on Dec. 11. Swap markets put the odds of a 50-basis point cut next month at about a coin flip.

The labour force participation rate fell a tick—the fourth monthly decline since May—to 64.8%, reaching its lowest level since December 1997 (except for the COVID-19 pandemic period). The decrease in labour force participation over the past year primarily reflects a drop in students looking for work.

The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 60.6% in October, the sixth consecutive monthly decline. It fell 1.3 percentage points on a year-over-year basis and has been on a downward trend from a recent peak of 62.4% in February 2023. The longer-term trend of rising retirements from an aging workforce has also reduced the employment rate.

The number of employees in the private sector was little changed in October, following two months of growth totalling 99,000 (+0.7%) in August and September. Public sector employment and self-employment were both virtually unchanged in October.

In October, employment in business, building and other support services rose by 29,000 (+4.2%), the first increase since May. On a year-over-year basis, employment in this industry—which includes establishments primarily engaged in activities that support the day-to-day operations of organizations, from waste management to administrative services—was up by 33,000 (+4.8%).

Employment in finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing fell by 13,000 (-0.9%) in October. Despite the decline in the month, employment in the industry was up by 50,000 (+3.6%) on a year-over-year basis, outpacing employment growth across all industries (+1.5%).

Public administration employment fell by 8,700 (-0.7%) in October, following two consecutive months of little change in August and September. Employment in public administration had previously followed a strong upward trend from August 2023 to July 2024, rising by 65,000 (+5.5%) over the period.

Employment in Alberta rose by 13,000 (+0.5%) in October, the second increase in three months. At 7.3%, the unemployment rate was little changed in the month, but was up 1.4 percentage points compared with October 2023. Over the same period, the employment rate in Alberta fell 1.6 percentage points to 63.7%, as employment growth (+2.3%; +58,000) was slower than growth in the population aged 15 and older in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) (+4.8%).

Employment also increased in New Brunswick in October (+3,300; +0.8%) and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.8%. On a year-over-year basis, employment in the province was up 3.1% (+12,000).

There were fewer employed people in Prince Edward Island in October (-1,100; -1.2%). The decline in employment, coupled with an increase in the number of Prince Edward Islanders in search of work, pushed the unemployment rate in the province up 2.9 percentage points to 10.0%.

Both Quebec and Ontario saw little overall employment change in October. The unemployment rate held steady in October in Quebec (at 5.7%) and in Ontario (at 6.8%).

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.5% in October, following a decline of 0.1 percentage points in September. On a year-over-year basis, the unemployment rate was up 0.8 percentage points in October, as 193,000 (+15.6%) more people searched for work or were on temporary layoff.

Wage growth for permanent employees accelerated to 4.9% in October, from 4.5% last month and beating the 4.5% rate anticipated by economists.

One more jobs report is scheduled before the Dec. 11 rate decision.  Canada’s October labour survey details aren’t as downbeat as we expected. However, the downside surprise in total hiring will give the BoC cover to continue cutting rates as it rushes to return to a neutral policy stance

Bottom Line
Economists are divided on whether the Bank of Canada will cut by 25 or 50 basis points on December 11. The October inflation data, released on Tuesday, November 19, will become all the more critical. The numbers are expected to be good, meaning low, but not as low as the 1.6% y/y inflation rate posted for September, driven down by the marked fall in gasoline prices. Monetary policy remains overly restrictive as the 3.75% overnight policy rate remains well above the inflation rate. We expect the overnight rate to fall to 2.5% by April or June of next year. This should continue to boost housing activity, which picked up significantly in October. Full data for October housing nationwide will be released next week on Friday, November 15.

All signals bode well for a sharp increase in housing activity by the spring, if not markedly sooner.