Today, the Bank of Canada increased its overnight benchmark interest rate 50 basis point to 3.75% from 3.25% in September. This is the sixth time this year that the Bank has tightened money supply to quell inflation, so far with limited results.  One of my favorite lenders, First National, always does a fantastic summary which is shared below.

Some economists had assumed the increase this time around would be higher, but the BoC decided differently based on its expert economic analysis. We summarize the Bank’s observations below, including its all-important outlook:

Inflation at home and abroad

• Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based reflecting the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices
• Energy prices particularly have inflated due to Russia’s attack on Ukraine
• The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries
• In Canada, two-thirds of Consumer Price Index (CPI) components increased more than 5% over the past year
• Near-term inflation expectations remain high, increasing the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched

Economic performance at home and abroad

• Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world
• In Canada, the economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight while Canadian demand for goods and services is “still running ahead of the economy’s ability to supply them,” putting upward pressure on domestic inflation
• Canadian businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services
• Domestic economic growth is “expected to stall” through the end of this year and the first half of next year as the effects of higher interest rates spread through the economy
• The Bank projects GDP growth will slow from 3.25% this year to just under 1% next year and 2% in 2024
• In the United States, labour markets remain “very tight” even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity
• The Bank projects no growth in the US economy “through most of next year”
• In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages
• China’s economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, “although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth”
• The Bank projects global economic growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1.5% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2.5% in 2024 – a slower pace than was projected in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report

Canadian housing market

• The effects of recent policy rate increases by the Bank are becoming evident in interest-sensitive areas of the economy including housing
• Housing activity has “retreated sharply,” and spending by households and businesses is softening

Outlook

The Bank noted that its “preferred measures of core inflation” are not yet showing “meaningful evidence that underlying price pressures are easing.” It did however offer the observation that CPI inflation is projected to move down to about 3% by the end of 2023, and then return to its 2% target by the end of 2024. This presumably would be achieved as “higher interest rates help rebalance demand and supply, price pressures from global supply chain disruptions fade and the past effects of higher commodity prices dissipate.”

As a consequence of elevated inflation and current inflation expectations, as well as ongoing demand pressures in the economy, the Bank’s Governing Council said to expect that “the policy interest rate will need to rise further.”

The level of such future rate increases will be influenced by the Bank’s assessments of “how tighter monetary policy is working to slow demand, how supply challenges are resolving, and how inflation and inflation expectations are responding.”

In case there was any doubt, the Bank also reiterated its “resolute commitment” to restore price stability for Canadians and said it will continue to take action as required to achieve its 2% inflation target.

As noted by DLC’s Chief Economist, Dr. Sherry Cooper, don’t expect for mortgage interest rates to ever go back to 1.5% – 2% as these were brought on due to the emergency measures that were required by the pandemic.  Those rates are likely never to return, however perhaps in late 2023 or early 2024 we can see mortgage rates return to a more normal 3.5% – 4%.  For a history of the Bank of Canada Prime since 2004 see here.

December 7, 2022 is the BoC’s next scheduled policy interest rate announcement.

As always, feel free to book in a call should you have questions about your mortgage.

I wanted to reach out this weekend to talk about the proposed mortgage rules tightening up on June 1^st given you might have a lot of questions.  As you know the media always likes to grab onto the latest soundbite and they most definitely love negative news more than the positive.

Canada’s top banking watchdog, The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) is taking another shot at overhauling its stress test on residential mortgages by increasing the stress test to 5.25%.

If you don’t want to read the whole article but wondering if it will fix anything just read the below 3 questions:

• Will the qualifying rate that the government is proposing fix runaway housing prices? No.
• Will it slow down the multiple offers and condition free craziness on offers? No.
• Will it create a smokescreen so that politicians and bureaucrats are doing something?  Maybe.

The proposed changes only target those clients putting more than 20% down on a purchase or refinancing a property.  The overall mortgage money that the borrower would have qualified before this proposed change happens will be approximately 5% less.  Thus, restricting borrowing slightly for the most well-qualified group of borrowers and buyers. To put it into perspective when the current stress test was first enacted on January 1^st, 2018 it reduced borrowing power by 35%, so in comparison this change is marginal.

If you’re a first-time home buyer who’s purchasing a property under $1million then this change won’t affect you.   Just a reminder, the minimum down payment in Canada depends on the purchase price of the home:

• If the purchase price is less than $500,000, the minimum down payment is 5%.
• If the purchase price is between $500,0000 and $999,999, the minimum down payment is 5% of the first $500,000, and 10% of any amount over $500,000.
• If the purchase price is $1,000,000 or more, the minimum down payment is 20%.

This proposed change will not come into play for credit unions or many of the mortgage finance companies that I use as OSFI, really only hold sway primarily over the banks.  The impact of this proposed change will likely only affect those that have just enough down payment saved for their $1million+ property whose ratios are extremely tight.

Although just a theory, if you’re wondering why they’re only proposing one tweak it’s likely because the pandemic has stripped away the illusions of a housing market driven by foreign investment while the original stress test removed the illusion of over indebted Canadians who were borrowing more than they could afford.  All these distractions – foreign buyers, speculation taxes, vacant home taxes are used up and none of these have done a thing to slow down the appreciation of real estate in Canada.  Only one thing will slow it down…and that’s increased supply.

A word of caution if you’re in a pre-sale contract buying preconstruction where you barely qualify as changes like this can really jam things up 1 or 2 years down the road when it’s time to complete.

As little as this proposed change is and it’s almost certain to happen this adjustment could impact your own personal situation significantly.   But for the most part it’s a whole lotta news about nothing and will likely not slow down the madness.

On another note, I’d like to share with you all that aren’t on my social media that I have chosen to take part in the LOVE-19 campaign.  Real Estate leaders all over Canada have been challenged to purchase 19 gift cards within their local communities from those small businesses that have been affected by COVID to share with friends, family and clients.

My first LOVE-19 gift card is to Kaboodles Toy Store with 3 locations around Vancouver and given that you’re already part of my VIP Club you’ll all be entered in all 19 weekly draws.  The first GC winner will be announced next Saturday!

Enjoy the rest of the sunshine and look forward to connecting soon.

Stay safe and healthy,

Kimberly

Happy Sunday!

With the rise in interest rates in the news this week I thought it would be great to share a quick blog post to clarify as you’re likely wondering what this means to me as a home-owner or future buyer.  The news outlets as you know love to create hype.