Stronger Than Expected Canadian Jobs Report for September Reduces the Chances of a 50-bp Rate Cut on October 23

General Kimberly Coutts 15 Oct

Stronger-Than-Expected September Jobs Report Reduces Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts   Statistics Canada released September employment data today, showing a marked uptick in job growth and the first decline in the unemployment rate this year. Employment rose by 46,700 in September, following four months of little change. Despite the employment gain, the employment rate—the proportion of […]

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Great News On the Canadian Inflation Front in August

General Kimberly Coutts 19 Sep

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, and down from a 2.5% gain in July 2024. Core inflation measures averaged 2.35% y/y and excluding mortgage interest, headline inflation was a mere 1.2%–well below the Bank’s target inflation level of […]

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August Housing Activity Flat Despite Rate Cuts

General Kimberly Coutts 17 Sep

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another slight gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July. Still, the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly […]

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Weak Canadian Labour Force Survey Sets The Stage For Further Rate Cuts

General Kimberly Coutts 6 Sep

Weaker-Than-Expected August Jobs Report Raises Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts   Statistics Canada released August employment data today, showing continued growth in excess supply in labour markets nationwide. Employment changed little last month, up 22,100. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased a tick to 60.8%, marking the […]

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Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 25 bps to 4.25%

General Kimberly Coutts 4 Sep

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point   Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation […]

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Canadian Q2 Real GDP Growth A Bit Stronger Than Expected, But Per Capita Real GDP Falls for The Fifth Consecutive Quarter

General Kimberly Coutts 30 Aug

Q2 Canadian Growth, Boosted By Record Population Gains, Slows In June And July   Canada’s economy grew a bit more than expected in the second quarter, but falling per-capita gross domestic product and softening household consumption assure the Bank of Canada that it will cut rates for a third consecutive meeting next week. Canadian GDP […]

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Canadian Housing Market On Pause In July

General Kimberly Coutts 20 Aug

Canadian Housing Market Paused In July   Despite the continued decline in interest rates, the Canadian housing market saw summer doldrums last month. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales fell 0.7% monthly while rising 4.8% from year-ago levels. A significant uptick in sales activity is likely this fall, reflecting […]

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Canadian Employment Growth Stalled In July, While the Jobless Rate Held Steady at 6.4%

General Kimberly Coutts 13 Aug

Weaker-Than-Expected July Jobs Report Keeps BoC Rate Cuts In-Play   Canadian employment data, released August 9 by Statistics Canada, showed a continued slowdown, which historically would have been a harbinger of recession. This cycle, immigration has augmented the growth of the labour force and consumer spending, forestalling a significant economic downturn. Employment declined again in […]

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