Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 50 BPs   After three consecutive 25 bp rate cuts, the BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. The market had priced in 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and back-to-back weak […]

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   Following the Bank of Canada’s third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems […]

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.6% year over year in September, the slowest pace since February 2021 and down from a 2.0% gain in August 2024. The main contributor to headline deceleration was lower year-over-year gasoline prices in September (-10.7%) compared with August (-5.1%). The all-items CPI, […]

Stronger-Than-Expected September Jobs Report Reduces Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts   Statistics Canada released September employment data today, showing a marked uptick in job growth and the first decline in the unemployment rate this year. Employment rose by 46,700 in September, following four months of little change. Despite the employment gain, the employment rate—the proportion of […]

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.0% year over year in August, the slowest pace since February 2021, and down from a 2.5% gain in July 2024. Core inflation measures averaged 2.35% y/y and excluding mortgage interest, headline inflation was a mere 1.2%–well below the Bank’s target inflation level of […]

Canadian Housing Market Stuck In A Holding Pattern   National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another slight gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July. Still, the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly […]

Weaker-Than-Expected August Jobs Report Raises Prospect Of Larger Rate Cuts   Statistics Canada released August employment data today, showing continued growth in excess supply in labour markets nationwide. Employment changed little last month, up 22,100. The employment rate—the proportion of the population aged 15 and older who are employed—decreased a tick to 60.8%, marking the […]

Bank of Canada Cuts Rates Another Quarter Point   Today, the Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This is the third consecutive decrease since June. The Bank’s decision reflects two main developments. First, headline and core inflation have continued to ease as expected. Second, as inflation […]

Q2 Canadian Growth, Boosted By Record Population Gains, Slows In June And July   Canada’s economy grew a bit more than expected in the second quarter, but falling per-capita gross domestic product and softening household consumption assure the Bank of Canada that it will cut rates for a third consecutive meeting next week. Canadian GDP […]

More Good News On The Canadian Inflation Front   Inflation in Canada decelerated once again in July to its slowest pace in three years, assuring the central bank will cut rates for the third consecutive meeting on September 4. The US is also widely expected to begin easing monetary policy at its September confab. The […]